• OPEC+ confirms plans to increase oil production by 2.2 million bpd starting April 2025, with the next hike scheduled for May.
  • The decision reflects confidence in market fundamentals despite geopolitical tensions and forecasted price volatility.
  • Eight member countries, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, will participate in the phased 18-month production increase.

OPEC+ Stays the Course on Production Increases

OPEC+ is moving forward with its scheduled oil output hike for May 2025, according to three sources within the producer group. This marks the second consecutive month of planned increases since the coalition began unwinding its voluntary production cuts in April.

The decision, described by one delegate as "business as usual," comes amid what the group characterizes as "healthy market fundamentals and positive outlook." Brent crude prices have remained stable near $70 per barrel in recent weeks, though analysts forecast a potential rise to $75 by Q3 2025 as global inventories tighten.

Balancing Act in Volatile Markets

The production increases—totaling 2.2 million barrels per day across eight member nations—represent a carefully calibrated strategy. "We're seeing enough demand growth to absorb these volumes," said one Gulf-based OPEC+ source, speaking on condition of anonymity. The phased approach, extending through September 2026, aims to prevent market oversupply while capitalizing on recovering demand.

Market watchers note the decision comes despite headwinds, including falling production in Iran and Venezuela. The UAE's scheduled 300,000 bpd quota increase, to be implemented gradually, has drawn particular attention as a bellwether for the group's cohesion.

Compensation Plans and Future Outlook

Seven OPEC+ members have submitted plans to offset previous overproduction, which could partially mitigate the impact of the planned hikes. Meanwhile, analysts at one major investment bank suggest the production increases may face a reckoning in late 2025, when inventories are expected to rebuild and potentially push prices toward a forecasted $68 average in 2026.

Attempts to reach OPEC's Vienna secretariat for additional comment were unsuccessful. The group next meets June 1 to review production policy.