- OPEC's latest report shows unchanged U.S. economic growth projections of 2.4% for 2025 and 2.3% for 2026.
- Global oil demand growth forecasts were trimmed slightly, reflecting trade uncertainties.
- Non-OPEC+ nations, led by the U.S., are expected to drive production increases through 2026.
Stable U.S. Outlook Amid Global Revisions
Contrary to some reports, OPEC has maintained its U.S. economic growth forecasts at 2.4% for 2025 and 2.3% for 2026, according to its March 2025 Monthly Oil Market Report. This stability comes as the organization made minor adjustments elsewhere, including a slight upward revision for Japan's 2025 outlook.
"The U.S. economy continues to demonstrate resilience," noted an OPEC official who asked not to be named, citing ongoing discussions about the forecasts. The official pointed to steady consumer spending and business investment as key factors supporting the unchanged projections.
Oil Market Adjustments
While leaving U.S. growth forecasts intact, OPEC did trim its global oil demand growth outlook for 2025 to 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d), down from previous estimates. The 2026 projection also saw a modest reduction of 0.1 mb/d to 1.3 mb/d year-on-year.
Production growth is expected to come primarily from non-OPEC+ countries, with the U.S., Canada, Brazil and Guyana projected to add 1.2 mb/d in 2025. OPEC+ itself anticipates modest increases of 0.1 mb/d next year after significant cuts in 2024.
Consumption Trends
Global oil consumption continues to lag pre-pandemic patterns, with the EIA forecasting growth of just 1.0 mb/d in 2025. Emerging markets show more promise, particularly India which is expected to increase consumption by 0.3 mb/d in 2026.
Market analysts suggest the unchanged U.S. forecasts may reflect confidence in the country's ability to navigate current economic crosscurrents, even as OPEC takes a more cautious view on global growth overall.