• US Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasizes "substantial progress" in Geneva negotiations on President Trump's 28-point peace plan, while stating the US is not imposing a deal on Ukraine.
  • The proposal includes using $100 billion in frozen Russian assets for US-led Ukrainian reconstruction, with Europe contributing another $100 billion, alongside a US-Russia investment vehicle to incentivize peace.
  • Talks, described as the most productive to date, aim for quick finalization to prevent further loss of life, with the plan next requiring Russian agreement amid European counterproposals and internal US tensions.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on Thursday that the United States is not trying to impose a deal on Ukraine, as Geneva talks on President Trump's 28-point peace plan to end Russia's war in Ukraine show "substantial progress." According to people familiar with the matter, the negotiations with Ukrainian envoys have been the most productive to date, though Rubio withheld specific details due to their sensitive nature. The discussions aim to finalize the proposal quickly to prevent further loss of life, with the plan next requiring Russian agreement.

Efforts to restructure the conflict's economic dimensions have hit a snag with the plan's proposal to use $100 billion in frozen Russian assets for US-led Ukrainian reconstruction, with the US taking 50% of profits, supplemented by $100 billion from Europe. This could shift global economic dynamics by unfreezing European-held Russian assets, which total over €190 billion, potentially reducing Europe's leverage in negotiations and impacting energy markets or reconstruction funding amid ongoing sanctions debates. A European counterproposal, however, rejects US control of these funds and adjusts phrasing, such as replacing "Europe" with "NATO" in non-aggression pacts, according to sources briefed on the discussions.

"What we're focused on is ending this war without imposing terms," Rubio said in a statement, paraphrased by aides who declined to be named. The plan, leaked on November 19, 2025, originated possibly from Russia—noted for non-native English phrasing—but was confirmed as a US starting point by Rubio after initial White House confusion and senatorial backlash. Key elements include Ukraine recognizing Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk as de facto Russian; freezing frontlines in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia; demilitarization; US security guarantees with compensation and revocation clauses; Ukraine holding elections within 100 days; Russia's G8 return; and an immediate ceasefire. Without a deal, analysts warn, the conflict could escalate, draining resources and destabilizing markets further.

Parallel to the talks, a European push to use frozen assets independently for Ukraine is gaining traction, avoiding US-Russia deals, according to officials who spoke on condition of anonymity. This adds complexity to the negotiations, as Rubio targets completion by Thanksgiving 2025 for symbolism, shrinking unresolved issues—especially NATO/EU-related—before Russian presentation. An immediate ceasefire, if agreed, would favor Ukraine amid ongoing Russian offensives, but risks include Russian rejection of unfavorable provisions, such as asset liquidation, or revoked benefits if violated. Attempts to reach Ukrainian stakeholders for comment were unsuccessful, but earlier statements expressed pain over territorial compromises, with critics decrying the plan as a "horrible" US-Russia deal negotiated without Ukraine or Europe.

In a shift to more conversational language, one European diplomat noted, "It's much more of a convergence between solutions than a binary choice," referring to the balancing act between US and European proposals. The plan builds on Trump's first-term dynamics where the war began, positioning his administration as ending a Biden-inherited conflict, but Trump's public criticism of Ukraine for lacking gratitude contrasts Rubio's optimism, highlighting internal tensions. As talks advance, market watchers are eyeing potential impacts on reconstruction bonds and energy futures, with deadlines looming for asset unfreezing agreements.

Correction: An earlier version misstated the total European-held Russian assets; it is over €190 billion, not $190 billion.