• Russia has supplied €21.3 billion worth of energy to the EU this year, according to Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, underscoring continued reliance on Russian fuels even as the bloc enforces a legally binding phase-out.
  • The claim remains unverified; the European Commission estimates remaining Russian gas purchases at roughly €10 billion annually, a narrower scope that excludes other energy products.
  • Russian LNG imports into Europe have risen 9.5% year over year, even as EU gas storage sits at 72% ahead of winter, well below the normal 90% target.

Novak’s Claim and the Data Gap

Russia has supplied energy worth $21.3 billion to the European Union this year, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Tuesday, according to Russian state media. The figure, which covers all energy products, underscores the persistent commercial ties between Moscow and Brussels despite the EU’s push to sever them.

But the claim is unverified. Independent confirmation of the $21.3 billion total was not immediately available, and key parameters—reporting period, fuel coverage, and valuation methodology—remain unclear. The European Commission has estimated annual spending on remaining Russian gas at approximately €10 billion, a narrower scope that likely excludes oil, coal, and nuclear products. The two figures cannot be compared directly.

Russian LNG Flows Remain Significant

The headline comes as Russian liquefied natural gas deliveries to Europe continue to flow. According to an October 11 report citing German NGO Urgewald’s analysis of Kpler shipping data, EU imports from Russia’s Yamal LNG project reached 12.18 million tonnes in January–September 2026, up 9.5% from a year earlier. That volume carries an estimated value of €7.88 billion.

These project-specific figures do not corroborate Novak’s broader estimate, but they illustrate the commercial stakes. Europe absorbed about 85% of Yamal’s recorded deliveries during the first nine months of the year, making the bloc the project’s dominant market.

Winter Supply Cushion Thinner Than Usual

The continued purchases are taking place against a backdrop of unusually low European gas inventories. ENTSOG, the European gas transmission operators’ association, reported storage at approximately 72% on October 1, compared with the bloc’s normal 90% pre-winter target. The group judged infrastructure sufficiently flexible to meet demand, provided LNG deliveries remain strong.

But the thinner cushion leaves Europe more exposed to cold snaps or supply disruptions. Reuters (TRI) reported on October 12 that depleted inventories and the approaching Russian LNG ban could keep European gas prices elevated for at least another year, even under a mild-winter scenario.

Legal Cutoff Approaches

The EU’s Russian-gas regulation entered into force in February 2026, making the phase-out legally binding, not merely a political objective. Russian LNG imports are scheduled to end by the end of 2026, and pipeline gas imports no later than November 30, 2027. A January 1, 2027 ban specifically targets Russian LNG under long-term contracts; short-term contracts face an earlier cutoff.

Additional sanctions introduced in April 2026 affect maintenance services for Russian LNG tankers and icebreakers, as well as LNG terminal services—measures designed to prevent circumvention.

The EU frames the phase-out as an energy-security measure and a means of reducing revenues available to Russia for its war in Ukraine. But the transition has been gradual. Russian gas fell from 45% of EU gas imports in 2021 to 12% in 2025, with volumes declining from 152 billion cubic metres to 36 billion cubic metres. The United States now supplies about 60% of EU LNG imports, while Russia remains the second-largest LNG supplier at around 17%.

Divergent Pressures

The continued trade has drawn criticism from sanctions advocates. Sebastian Rötters, a campaigner at Urgewald, has urged the EU to close remaining loopholes supporting Russian Arctic LNG shipping. That position reflects concerns that transitional purchases undermine pressure on Moscow.

But for energy-intensive industries and households, the immediate concern is price. Landlocked countries in central and eastern Europe face particular challenges accessing replacement LNG, ENTSOG noted. The debate is therefore about the pace and cost of disengagement as well as its strategic objective.

A spokesperson for the European Commission did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Novak’s figure. A press officer at Russia’s energy ministry could not be reached outside normal business hours.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the percentage of EU gas imports that Russia supplied in 2021. It was 45%, not 40%.