• Russia will maintain its nuclear test moratorium unless the United States resumes underground testing, at which point Moscow will reciprocate immediately.
  • Russian nuclear test ranges, including Novaya Zemlya, remain fully operational and ready for potential use.
  • The warning follows former President Donald Trump's stated intention to restart U.S. nuclear weapons testing, ending a 30-year de facto moratorium.

Russia's Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu has issued a stark warning that Moscow will match any U.S. decision to resume underground nuclear testing, while otherwise maintaining the country's current moratorium. The declaration comes amid heightened nuclear tensions following former President Donald Trump's recent statement that the United States intends to restart nuclear weapons testing.

"If the United States resumes underground nuclear tests, we will have to respond in kind," Shoigu stated, according to people familiar with his remarks. "Otherwise, we will maintain our moratorium." The position echoes recent statements from the Kremlin that Russia's actions will mirror those taken by Washington.

The warning underscores the fragile state of nuclear diplomacy as both nations continue computational testing—simulated nuclear detonations using computer models and small-scale experiments—while refraining from physical underground explosions since the early 1990s. Russia's primary nuclear test range at Novaya Zemlya remains "fully ready for use at any time," according to security officials.

Efforts to reach the U.S. State Department for comment on the potential resumption of testing were unsuccessful. A spokesperson for the National Security Council declined to comment on "speculative scenarios" regarding nuclear testing policy.

The conditional reciprocity strategy has dominated nuclear diplomacy since the Cold War's end, but experts warn the current escalation risks undermining decades of arms control agreements. "Any actual test by either side would likely trigger a wave of reciprocal actions and could fundamentally erode existing arms control frameworks," said a European security analyst who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive nuclear matters.

Satellite imagery in recent years has shown expansions at both Russian and Chinese test sites, though neither country has formally declared preparations for actual detonations. The pattern of mutual suspicion has intensified amid Russia's testing of advanced nuclear delivery systems, including the Burevestnik cruise missile and Poseidon underwater drone.

Technical and political obstacles would likely delay any immediate U.S. resumption of full-scale testing, with some estimates suggesting preparation could take up to three years due to aging infrastructure and lack of recent investment. Still, the rhetorical escalation has intensified debates in strategic circles about the future of nuclear deterrence.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the location of Russia's primary nuclear test range. It is Novaya Zemlya.