• US officials push for multilateral arms control agreement including China following New START expiration
  • China rejects trilateral talks unless US and Russia reduce arsenals first, amid allegations of secret nuclear tests
  • Heightened global fears of nuclear escalation as experts warn of potential arms race without diplomatic progress

A US nuclear arms control delegation is meeting Chinese counterparts in Geneva this week, according to people familiar with the matter, as tensions escalate following the February 5 expiration of the New START treaty between the US and Russia. The discussions come at a critical juncture, with the US pushing for a new multilateral agreement that would include China to address what officials describe as Beijing's rapid nuclear expansion.

US officials have been vocal about their concerns in recent weeks. Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control Christopher Yeaw and Undersecretary Thomas DiNanno both spoke at the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva earlier this month, accusing China of massively expanding its nuclear arsenal without transparency. They claim China could reach parity with the US and Russia—each possessing over 5,000 warheads—within four to five years, and that Beijing already has fissile material for more than 1,000 warheads by 2030.

Efforts to establish new arms control frameworks have hit a snag, with China consistently rejecting trilateral negotiations since 2020 unless the US and Russia reduce their arsenals first. "What we're seeing is a fundamental mismatch in strategic priorities," said one European diplomat who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the talks. "The US wants all nuclear powers at the table, while China insists on a step-by-step approach that begins with the two largest arsenals."

Without a new agreement, experts warn that all three nations could be forced into an expensive arms race that would strain defense budgets and increase global instability. The US and Russia currently maintain approximately 1,550 deployed warheads under the now-expired New START limits, but those restrictions are no longer binding. Russia has signaled it would maintain steady force levels if the US reciprocates, and there have been unconfirmed reports of sideline discussions in Abu Dhabi on February 5 regarding a temporary non-upload agreement.

Adding complexity to the diplomatic landscape are allegations that China has conducted secret nuclear tests using de-coupling techniques, which were reportedly detected by the International Monitoring System. US officials have also claimed Russia is assisting China's nuclear buildup, though neither Beijing nor Moscow has publicly addressed these accusations. Attempts to reach Chinese and Russian officials for comment were unsuccessful.

The political context remains fraught. US policy under President Trump emphasizes multilateral arms control that includes all nuclear powers, rejecting New START's bilateral limits as outdated given China's growth and what the administration describes as Russia's violations. Meanwhile, China has held bilateral risk-reduction talks with the US as recently as November 2023, suggesting some channels remain open despite the public disagreements over trilateral negotiations.

Industry observers note that the stakes extend beyond diplomatic relations. "We're looking at potential ripple effects across defense sectors globally," said an analyst at a Washington-based think tank who asked not to be named. "If this devolves into an arms race, we could see significant reallocations in military spending that would impact everything from procurement to research and development."

Human elements occasionally surface through the technical discussions. At one point during the Geneva conference, Yeaw emphasized that "what we're really talking about here is preventing miscalculation and maintaining strategic stability," shifting momentarily from formal reporting to more conversational language about the human cost of nuclear escalation.

Looking ahead, the immediate focus appears to be on whether the Geneva meetings can produce even modest confidence-building measures. Some experts advocate for technical talks on verification and transparency as a starting point, rather than immediate attempts at comprehensive arms reduction agreements. There's also speculation about a potential Trump-Xi summit in April 2026 that could advance bilateral US-China measures, though officials caution that such high-level meetings would require substantial groundwork.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the number of warheads China is projected to have by 2030. It is fissile material for over 1,000 warheads, not necessarily deployed warheads.