• Culper Research discloses a short position against Nvidia, alleging more than 20% of its FY2026 compute revenue is tied to China via GPU diversion through Southeast Asian intermediaries.
  • The report specifically names Singapore-based Megaspeed, claiming hidden financial links to Alibaba and rerouting of Nvidia-powered servers through Malaysia.
  • Nvidia has previously stated it found no evidence of diversion in its global data center checks, and the company maintains compliance with U.S. export controls.

A short-seller report has put Nvidia’s China exposure back in the spotlight. Culper Research disclosed a short position against the chipmaker on Wednesday, alleging that Nvidia continues to derive a meaningful portion of its FY2026 compute revenue from China despite U.S. trade restrictions. The firm claims that Nvidia’s GPUs are being diverted through intermediaries in Southeast Asia, circumventing export controls.

Culper specifically pointed to Singapore-based Megaspeed, alleging hidden financial links to Alibaba and possible rerouting of Nvidia-powered servers through Malaysia. According to the report, more than 20% of Nvidia’s compute revenue for the current fiscal year is tied to China through these channels. The report also raised concerns about supplier relationships and alleged attempts to bypass U.S. export controls.

“Without a deal, the company would be forced into bankruptcy,” the report said, though Nvidia has not commented on the specific allegations. In previous statements, Nvidia has denied any diversion and cited ongoing checks showing no evidence of China-based revenue leakage. The company’s compliance efforts have been a focal point for investors.

Nvidia shares fell 3% in early trading Wednesday following the report’s release, though the stock has since recovered some losses. The broader market has been watching Nvidia’s China exposure closely since the U.S. implemented export controls on advanced GPUs in 2022. The company has adapted by developing compliant products and exploring regional strategies.

Analysts have weighed in, emphasizing the importance of compliance controls and the scale of China-facing revenue. “If concerns about diversion were substantiated, affected stakeholders would include Chinese customers, global data-center providers, distributors and intermediaries, and shareholders facing added regulatory risk,” said one analyst, who asked not to be named.

The geopolitical tension between the U.S. and China over AI hardware continues to shape Nvidia’s revenue mix and growth trajectory. While the company has historically navigated these headwinds by adjusting product offerings and supply-chain routing, the short-seller narrative adds a risk factor for investors to monitor alongside ongoing demand strength in non-China markets.

Nvidia did not respond to a request for comment on the Culper report.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the percentage of revenue claimed by Culper. It is more than 20%, not 25%.