• Gold prices edge higher post-U.S. CPI release, up 0.2% near $3,351/oz.
  • Traders reassess Fed rate-cut odds as the dollar stabilizes after Monday’s sharp drop.
  • Near-term direction hinges on CPI’s impact on Fed guidance and yields.

Gold Finds Footing After CPI Release

Spot gold climbed modestly on Tuesday, rising 0.2% to $3,351 per ounce as markets digested the latest U.S. inflation data. The move follows a 1.6% slide on Monday, which came after clarification that imported bullion would not face U.S. tariffs—a development that eased a previously reported risk premium on gold.

Traders are now closely watching how the Consumer Price Index (CPI) print influences Federal Reserve rate expectations. Elevated bets for a September cut have provided underlying support, though a firmer dollar has capped gains. Prices remain within a multi-week range of $3,250–$3,450, with resistance near $3,380 and support around $3,330.

Fed Policy and Market Dynamics

A softer CPI reading could reinforce rate-cut expectations, lowering real yields and bolstering non-yielding assets like gold. Conversely, a hotter print risks pushing prices toward support levels near $3,314–$3,292. The dollar’s recent steadiness and 10-year yields hovering near resistance have limited upside, but further weakness in the greenback on dovish CPI data could fuel another leg higher.

“The CPI is the decisive near-term driver,” one analyst noted, adding that elevated September cut expectations lend a slightly bullish bias. However, dollar firmness continues to temper rallies.

Geopolitical and Trade Context

The extension of the U.S.–China tariff truce and planned U.S.–Russia talks have modestly softened safe-haven demand, influencing short-term price action. Meanwhile, the removal of potential tariffs on gold imports has reduced supply-side uncertainty, benefiting investors and jewelers alike.

Gold is up roughly 36% year-over-year as of August 12, 2025, though it remains below April’s all-time high near $3,500. With volatility likely to persist around major macro and geopolitical headlines, traders are bracing for further swings as the Fed’s next move comes into focus.