• Spot gold surged 1.6% to $4,998.61 per ounce following the US CPI release, rebounding from a 13% drop earlier in February amid resilient labor data and Fed caution.
  • The CPI report, showing core inflation easing to a near five-year low around 2.5%, reinforced trader expectations for Fed rate cuts delayed to July, boosting gold as a non-yielding safe-haven asset.
  • Gold prices held near $5,000 after dipping to a one-week low around $4,952 on February 12, with broader trends including a 69-75% yearly rise and strong central bank demand sustaining support.

Gold prices extended gains after the US CPI data release, rising 1.6% to $4,998.61 per ounce, according to market data. This rebound comes after a sharp 13% drop earlier in February, driven by resilient US labor data and Federal Reserve caution on rate cuts. By February 13, spot gold reached $4,967-$4,998, up 0.9-1.6% daily and 7-8% monthly, supported by central bank demand, Asian buying, and geopolitical tensions.

The CPI report, expected to show core inflation easing to approximately 2.5%—a near five-year low—has reinforced trader expectations for Fed rate cuts delayed to July, boosting gold as a non-yielding safe-haven asset. Lower-than-expected CPI could signal cooling inflation, favoring gold by tempering rate-hike fears and supporting a potential breakout above $5,100. However, hotter data risks short-term pullbacks amid strong US jobs figures, such as the 130,000 nonfarm payrolls reported in January.

Efforts to stabilize the market have seen gold pare gains, with prices dropping to $4,952 on February 12, a 2.6% decline after strong jobs data pushed rate-cut bets to July. Without sustained demand, the metal might retest lower levels, but current trends suggest resilience. Broader factors include gold's 69-75% yearly rise, central bank accumulation as strategic reserves, and volatility in related metals like silver, which rose 4.6% to $78.59. Global demand from China and persistent uncertainties continue to provide tailwinds, keeping prices above $5,000.

Industry sources note that gold hit an all-time high of $5,608 in January 2026 before the recent drop, with the 2026 rally echoing post-2020 inflation-driven surges. Analysts are closely watching for a softer CPI to trigger a breakout above $5,100, but caution that data surprises could lead to volatility. In the long term, some predict potential gains to $6,000 in 2026 if low rates persist and central bank buying continues. Attempts to reach Fed officials for comment on the rate outlook were unsuccessful, but market participants remain focused on upcoming economic indicators.

This article was updated to clarify the monthly percentage gains for gold.