• BofA Securities says tariff refunds could act as a modest disinflationary force by cushioning higher energy and shipping costs for importers.
  • The bank adds that any consumer impact is likely to come through slower price increases rather than direct cash benefits.
  • Refunds totaling $134–180 billion will flow to importers, but households won't see direct payments.

A Cushion for Importers

A U.S. Supreme Court ruling last month invalidated President Donald Trump's broad tariffs collected under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), unlocking approximately $134–180 billion in refunds for importers who paid directly. BofA Securities analysts led by Francisco Blanch said the refunds will provide a modest disinflationary boost by offsetting higher energy and shipping costs. However, consumers are unlikely to see direct cash benefits. "The American people won't see it," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said recently, casting doubt on any household relief.

Price Stickiness Wins

Despite the massive refund flow, BofA warns that "price stickiness wins" — retailers may not fully pass savings to consumers. Instead, households may experience relief only through slower price increases, not direct rebates. The average household paid over $1,000 annually in higher prices due to tariffs, but the refund structure excludes consumers. Moody's Analytics estimates $133.5 billion in potential refunds, which could add roughly $133 billion to the federal spending deficit.

Market and Political Implications

The ruling curtails future emergency-based tariff actions, reducing volatility in trade policy. BofA noted that the refund process will be complex, with large firms likely receiving payments faster than smaller claimants. Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo have echoed similar concerns, warning that consumers remain stuck with higher prices despite the Supreme Court decision. The development may ease some inflation pressures but is not expected to deliver a significant stimulus to the broader economy.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the refund amount range. The correct range is $134–180 billion.