• Analysts at TD Cowen estimate a 60% probability the SEC will move public companies to semi-annual financial reporting.
  • The push is backed by industry lobbying, political support from President Trump, and a deregulatory agenda under SEC Chair Paul Atkins.
  • A formal rulemaking process is anticipated but would likely take at least six months, with implementation not expected before 2027.

A significant shift in the rhythm of U.S. financial markets is now seen as more likely than not. According to analysts at TD Cowen, there is a 60% chance the Securities and Exchange Commission will move from mandatory quarterly to semi-annual earnings reporting for public companies.

The effort has gained substantial momentum, fueled by a confluence of industry backing—with the Long-Term Stock Exchange (LTSE) being among the most vocal lobbyists—and high-level political support from President Trump. The philosophical shift within the SEC itself, under the leadership of Chair Paul Atkins, is viewed as a key catalyst. People familiar with the matter suggest Atkins sees this as a potential early policy victory that aligns with a broader agenda focused on deregulation, facilitating capital formation, and improving the competitive position of U.S. markets.

The SEC's recently published Spring 2025 regulatory agenda, which prioritizes reducing disclosure and compliance burdens, has created a clear opening for such a change. A specific agenda item on the "rationalization of disclosure practices" is seen by policy watchers as a direct pathway to reconsidering the frequency of reports like the Form 10-Q. However, the process is in its early stages; the most advanced items on the current agenda are only in the "proposed rule" stage, targeting an April 2026 notice of proposed rulemaking. This timeline suggests any final rule would not take effect until 2027, assuming it survives what is expected to be a contentious public comment period.

Proponents argue the change would alleviate significant compliance costs for companies, particularly smaller issuers, and help curb the market's alleged "short-termism" fostered by the quarterly earnings cycle. This would bring the U.S. more in line with other major economies like the UK and parts of the EU, which typically require only semi-annual reporting.

Yet, the move is certain to face stiff opposition from many institutional investors and advocacy groups, who contend it would severely reduce market transparency and delay the identification of financial or operational problems. The shift to quarterly reporting in the 1970s was itself a response to corporate misconduct, making any reversal a politically sensitive issue.

TD Cowen's analysts note that while the stars appear to be aligning for proponents, the rulemaking process is long and unpredictable. The SEC did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the timeline or the specifics of its review.