• TD Cowen reiterates Buy on Tesla with a $490 target, citing potential upside if a long-wheelbase, three-row Model Y L enters the US.
  • Analyst Itay Michaeli estimates annual demand of 60,000 to 135,000 units, roughly 30% above current Model Y volumes.
  • The launch could pressure rivals in the $50k+ three-row SUV segment amid EV demand recovery.

Tesla may be plotting a bigger footprint in the US crossover market. The automaker is reportedly considering a long-wheelbase, three-row variant of its best-selling Model Y, dubbed the Model Y L, according to analysts at TD Cowen. The firm, which reiterated a Buy rating on Tesla with a price target of $490, sees the move as a potential catalyst that could lift sales and pressure competitors.

“We estimate the Model Y L could capture incremental demand of 60,000 to 135,000 units annually in the US, representing about a 30% boost over current Model Y volumes,” analyst Itay Michaeli wrote in a note to clients. The estimate comes as Tesla navigates a recovering EV demand environment and looks to fend off a growing roster of rivals.

The Model Y L, already launched in China, offers a third row of seating in a longer wheelbase. While Tesla has not confirmed US plans, the company typically brings competitive variants to its home market, sources familiar with the matter said. Tesla did not respond to requests for comment.

If introduced, the Model Y L would square off against a swath of three-row electric SUVs, including the Ford Mustang Mach-E (F), [Kia EV9 (KMX) (VWAGY)](https://www.roic.ai/quote/VWAGY), and Rivian R1S. The segment is seen as a key growth area for family buyers, with vehicles often priced above $50,000.

“The larger variant could be a differentiator for Tesla, especially if it qualifies for federal tax credits and comes at a competitive price point,” Michaeli said. He noted that the Model Y L could strengthen Tesla’s hand as the company works to sustain its margin advantage.

The stock rose 2.3% in early trading on the note, though gains moderated later in the session. Shares of Tesla have rallied 15% this year on optimism around its autonomous driving roadmap and renewed demand.

Some analysts remain cautious, noting that the Model Y L’s US debut is far from certain and could be delayed by regulatory hurdles or supply chain constraints. “We’d need to see concrete guidance from Tesla before baking in upside,” said one analyst who asked not to be named.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the demand estimate as 60,000 to 135,000 units globally; it was for the US market specifically.