• Tesla shares gained 2.5% as investors anticipate strong Q3 delivery figures
  • Analysts project between 442,000 and 470,000 vehicles delivered, potentially marking a 22% quarterly increase
  • The surge is largely attributed to U.S. consumers accelerating purchases before the $7,500 federal EV tax credit expires

Tesla Inc. shares advanced 2.5% in midday trading Thursday as the electric vehicle giant prepares to release its third-quarter delivery numbers, with analysts pointing to robust U.S. demand driven by expiring federal incentives.

The stock movement comes amid expectations that Tesla will report delivery figures between 442,000 and 470,000 vehicles for the quarter ending September 2025. This would represent a significant jump from the 384,000 vehicles delivered in the second quarter and potentially mark a 22% quarter-over-quarter increase.

According to people familiar with preliminary data, September deliveries showed particular strength in the United States, where consumers are rushing to qualify for the full $7,500 federal EV tax credit before it expires. "We're seeing clear evidence of demand being pulled forward," said one analyst who asked not to be named because the delivery figures haven't been officially released.

Deutsche Bank is among the more optimistic forecasters, projecting deliveries could reach 461,500 vehicles. The bullish sentiment was echoed by Piper Sandler, which recently raised its price target on Tesla to $500.

The stock has surged nearly 30% in September alone, reflecting growing investor confidence in Tesla's ability to capitalize on the incentive-driven demand surge. Efforts to reach Tesla for comment on the preliminary delivery estimates were unsuccessful.

In China, Tesla's second-largest market, deliveries for the quarter are estimated between 165,000 and 170,000 units, exceeding earlier projections. The strong performance comes despite not yet including substantial sales of new models in the region.

Without the tax credit incentive in the fourth quarter, analysts caution that Tesla could face order volatility and potential demand softening. The company's ability to maintain momentum post-incentive will be closely watched when it reports official delivery figures in the coming days.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the quarter for which delivery estimates were being reported. The figures are for Q3 2025.