• Options traders are piling into bullish Nvidia calls, targeting $145–$150 strikes after shares closed at $131.29 Friday.
  • Despite a looming $5.5B China-related charge, Nvidia’s history of volatile earnings moves has markets pricing in a 6.7% swing.
  • The AI chip giant’s data center dominance and Blackwell GPU demand remain focal points for investors.

High-Stakes Gamble on Nvidia’s Earnings

Traders are doubling down on Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) ahead of its earnings report, betting that the semiconductor leader will shake off recent tariff-related losses and deliver another AI-fueled rally. Call options targeting $145–$150 strikes have seen heavy activity, reflecting expectations for a rebound from Friday’s $131.29 close. The options market implies a 6.7% move—slightly skewed to the upside—despite analysts flagging a likely $5.5 billion charge tied to U.S. restrictions on chip sales to China.

Nvidia’s earnings have become must-watch events for tech investors, with the stock averaging an 8.6% post-report move over the past eight quarters. “This is a binary trade—either the AI narrative holds or it cracks,” said one hedge fund derivatives trader, who asked not to be named discussing client positions. “The street is leaning toward another beat, but the China headwinds are real.”

The China Factor and AI Demand

The expected $5.5 billion charge stems from U.S. export controls that have forced Nvidia to redesign chips for the Chinese market. Yet even with these constraints, the company’s data center revenue—which surged to $115 billion in fiscal 2025—continues to dwarf competitors. CEO Jensen Huang recently called demand for its Blackwell AI supercomputers “amazing,” though some analysts question whether hyperscalers might slow orders after a year of massive purchases.

Options activity suggests traders see upside surprises outweighing risks. Open interest in weekly $145 calls has jumped 32% since last Thursday, while the $150 strike for the same expiration saw a 41% increase in volume. “The call skew tells you everything,” said the derivatives trader. “Even with the China overhang, people are positioning for AI to save the day again.”

—Reporting by ROIC AI; Nvidia declined to comment on market positioning ahead of earnings.