• The Trump administration has initiated a formal investigation into China's adherence to the 2020 trade agreement
  • U.S. officials are examining whether China has fulfilled commitments on tariff reductions, market access, and addressing trade imbalances
  • The probe could lead to renewed tariff escalations if China is found noncompliant, potentially disrupting global supply chains

Renewed Trade Tensions

The Trump administration has announced the commencement of an official investigation into China's compliance with the 2020 trade deal, according to people familiar with the matter. This move comes as part of broader revisions to U.S. trade and tariff policy that could have significant ramifications for bilateral economic relations and global trade flows.

President Trump recently signed an Executive Order to modify the scope of reciprocal tariffs and establish new procedures for evaluating partner compliance—with China being the primary focus. The administration is specifically examining whether China has met its commitments related to reducing tariffs, opening markets, and addressing trade imbalances first established in the 2020 agreement.

Economic Implications

According to the Congressional Research Service, a key outcome of earlier U.S.-China negotiations was a reduction in mutual tariffs imposed since April 2025—from 125% down to 10%. However, the current investigation signals renewed scrutiny and the potential for re-escalation if China is found noncompliant with the terms of the deal.

"We are closely monitoring China's implementation of their commitments," said a senior administration official who requested anonymity because the investigation is ongoing. "The 2025 policy framework explicitly ties tariff reductions to verifiable progress on U.S. trade concerns."

Early responses from business associations and trade groups have warned of potential cost increases and supply disruptions should the investigation lead to renewed tariffs. American manufacturers, farmers, and consumers could be directly affected by any changes in tariffs or market access, with some sectors potentially gaining relief while others face higher costs.

Broader Policy Context

The investigation forms part of a broader trend of increased economic nationalism in U.S. policy, with reciprocal and targeted tariffs also being levied against other trading partners including Mexico, Canada, Brazil, and India. The administration's approach incorporates national security and foreign policy goals into trade policy, with tariffs on China linked to supply chain resilience and traditional trade deficit reduction.

Efforts to reach Chinese trade representatives for comment were unsuccessful Thursday. A spokesperson for the U.S. Trade Representative's office declined to specify a timeline for the investigation's completion but indicated that preliminary findings would guide next steps.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the current tariff rate on certain Chinese goods. The rate was reduced from 125% to 10% in April 2025, not to 15%.