• Former President Trump forecasts $2 per gallon gasoline "pretty soon," calling it "bigger than a tax cut"
  • National average prices have already dropped to four-year lows, with some stations approaching the $2 threshold
  • The Energy Information Administration projects more modest decreases to around $2.90 per gallon in 2026

President Donald Trump has predicted that gasoline prices will drop to approximately $2 per gallon "pretty soon," describing this prospect as "bigger than a tax cut" during recent remarks in Japan. The prediction comes as national averages have already reached their lowest levels in four years.

Current data shows the national average for regular gasoline sitting at approximately $3.04 per gallon according to AAA, while GasBuddy reports a slightly lower nationwide average of $2.98. Some regions are already approaching Trump's target, with stations in Evans, Colorado posting $1.99 cash prices and similar levels appearing in Oklahoma and Texas. Currently, 35 states have average gas prices below $2.99 per gallon.

Trump's prediction is grounded in his administration's energy dominance agenda, which he recently highlighted by declaring "October 2025 as National Energy Dominance Month." The approach prioritizes increased oil drilling and domestic energy production, following the motto "drill baby drill" that Trump emphasized during his Japan speech.

However, government forecasts suggest a more modest trajectory than Trump's $2 prediction. The Energy Information Administration estimates U.S. average gasoline prices will decrease by 11 cents per gallon in 2025 compared to 2024, and forecasts a further 18-cent decrease in 2026, bringing average prices to approximately $2.90 per gallon. These decreases are primarily driven by lower crude oil prices and increasing fuel economy standards, though decreasing U.S. refinery capacity may offset some downward pressure.

Several developments are supporting the downward pressure on gas prices. U.S. benchmark oil prices have fallen from $80 per barrel at the beginning of 2025 to near $62 per barrel as of September 2025. Meanwhile, the Permian Basin is ramping up production capacity, which could support further price reductions in 2026.

The economic impact of sustained lower prices would be significant. Gasoline as a share of disposable income for U.S. drivers is expected to hit a 20-year low, with spending on gasoline averaging less than 2 percent of drivers' disposable income. This represents substantial relief from the peak of $5.016 per gallon nationally in mid-June 2022 during the Biden administration.

Oil executives have praised Trump's moves to support energy production, including efforts to refill the oil reserve, though some industry sources warn of potential "price shock" if production stalls. The administration's focus on maximum production appears to be delivering results, even if the exact $2 target remains more aggressive than current expert consensus.

Efforts to reach the EIA for additional comment on the gap between Trump's prediction and their forecast were not immediately successful. Energy sector analysts continue to monitor whether production increases and crude price declines could push more regions below the $2 threshold in the coming months.