• President Trump claims a potential Iran deal is “fully negotiated,” with key provisions aimed at opening the Strait of Hormuz and curbing nuclear enrichment.
  • Markets remain cautious as final technical details and enforcement mechanisms are still under discussion, keeping oil prices elevated.
  • Indirect talks continue with regional partners, while verification and regional security guarantees remain sticking points.

President Donald Trump declared that a deal with Iran has been “fully negotiated,” suggesting a framework is in place to address nuclear limits and secure the Strait of Hormuz. Speaking on Thursday, the President emphasized that the path to an agreement has been largely cleared, though he stopped short of announcing a final treaty. “We’ve done the heavy lifting, now it’s about dotting the i’s,” he told reporters, according to people familiar with the matter.

The announcement comes amid ongoing indirect negotiations between U.S. and Iranian officials, with Oman and other regional intermediaries facilitating talks. Sources close to the process caution that while broad principles are settled—including a staged rollback of enrichment activities and a reopening of the strategic waterway—several technical points remain unresolved. “The sides have agreed on the big picture, but the devil is in the details,” a diplomat briefed on the talks said.

Market participants are closely monitoring the situation, as any disruption to the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint for about 20% of global oil supply—could send crude prices soaring. Oil futures have remained elevated in recent weeks, reflecting lingering uncertainty. Analysts suggest that a verifiable deal could ease sanctions on Tehran and increase global supply, but the timeline for finalization is unclear. “Investors are pricing in risk rather than relief,” a commodities strategist noted.

Blackstone’s Italy Chairman Andrea Valeri, speaking at a conference in Milan, drew broader parallels: “Regulatory certainty is what drives capital,” he said, though he did not comment directly on Iran. The sentiment echoes across energy markets, where the lack of a concrete, enforceable framework keeps premiums high.

Regional partners, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have been consulted on security guarantees. U.S. officials have stressed that any deal must include robust verification and consequences for noncompliance, reflecting lessons from the 2015 agreement. “Without a credible enforcement mechanism, this is just paper,” a former diplomat familiar with the discussions remarked.

Efforts to reach the White House for additional comment were unsuccessful. The President’s remarks gave a boost to risk sentiment in early trading, but gains faded as traders scrutinized the lack of a signed document. Observers expect the coming weeks to be decisive, with a window for a framework before political calendars intensify.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the timing of President Trump’s remarks. They were made Thursday, not Wednesday.