• President Trump asserts a draft agreement with Iran has been finalized and could be signed soon, signaling a potential breakthrough in nuclear and regional talks.
  • Iranian officials caution that no final deal has been reached, highlighting ongoing disputes over key terms.
  • Markets react with volatility as the prospect of reopening the Strait of Hormuz and phased sanctions relief fuels speculation.

Finalization Claim Amid Caution

President Donald Trump announced on Thursday that a deal with Iran has been “all signed,” suggesting that a draft agreement has been finalized and is ready for formal adoption. Speaking to reporters, Trump declared that the agreement would open the Strait of Hormuz and provide phased sanctions relief, while deferring detailed nuclear discussions to a later stage. However, Iranian officials swiftly pushed back. “No final agreement exists,” a senior Iranian negotiator told state media, warning that key issues remain unresolved. The conflicting statements underscore the fragility of the talks, which have entered a decisive but uncertain phase.

Hormuz and Sanctions at the Core

The reported deal centers on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for global oil shipments, in exchange for the gradual lifting of sanctions and the unfreezing of Iranian assets. According to people familiar with the matter, the agreement would also include verification mechanisms tied to compliance milestones, though the specifics of nuclear enrichment limits have been postponed. This phased approach mirrors earlier negotiations under the JCPOA but introduces new elements aimed at addressing regional security concerns. “The focus on Hormuz is a major shift,” said a Gulf-based analyst. “It’s a tangible win for both sides if implemented.”

Market and Geopolitical Ripples

Markets have reacted with heightened volatility as traders weigh the potential for reduced tensions in the Gulf. Oil prices initially dipped on news of a possible breakthrough but rebounded after Iranian officials expressed skepticism. “We’re seeing a tug-of-war between optimism and caution,” a commodities strategist noted. European and Gulf allies are closely monitoring the talks, with diplomats emphasizing the need for enforceable verification to ensure any deal bolsters nonproliferation norms. “Without a robust inspection regime, this could unravel quickly,” a European official said. Attempts to reach both the White House and Iran’s mission to the UN for comment were unsuccessful.

Correction: An earlier version of this article stated that sanctions relief would be immediate. The phased approach has been clarified.