• Former President Donald Trump has signaled he would work closely with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to end the war in Ukraine, claiming Erdogan could have "big influence" over Russia.
  • The outreach, which included a phone call and an invitation for Erdogan to visit Washington, marks a significant warming of U.S.-Turkey relations after a period of strain.
  • The potential realignment carries major implications for energy markets, NATO cohesion, and military sales, including the contentious F-35 fighter jet program.

Efforts to resolve the protracted war in Ukraine are taking a new turn, with Donald Trump positioning Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as a central figure in potential peace negotiations. In a recent statement, Trump highlighted Erdogan's unique leverage with Moscow, stating his intent to collaborate closely with the Turkish leader to achieve a settlement.

The development follows a phone call between the two leaders and an invitation for Erdogan to visit the United States, signaling a rapid rekindling of the personal diplomacy that characterized their previous interactions. "He could have big influence over that situation," Trump said of Erdogan's potential role with Russia, emphasizing the urgency of the matter. A meeting in Washington is expected to be scheduled soon, according to people familiar with the planning.

Turkey, a NATO member that maintains complex ties with both Russia and Ukraine, has previously acted as an intermediary, hosting ceasefire talks in the early stages of the invasion in 2022. The country relies on Russia for over 40% of its natural gas and has leveraged its strategic position to balance its alliance obligations with its economic and diplomatic interests. This balancing act makes Ankara a potentially viable, though complicated, channel for dialogue.

The warming bilateral relationship extends beyond the Ukraine conflict. A major item on the agenda is the stalled sale of F-35 fighter jets to Turkey, which was halted after Ankara purchased Russian S-400 air defense systems, triggering U.S. sanctions under the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). The Trump administration is reportedly open to revisiting the issue, a move that would be met with resistance from some members of Congress and allies like Greece.

Economically, the U.S. is actively lobbying Turkey to shift its energy imports away from Russia and toward American liquefied natural gas (LNG). Turkey has recently announced plans for a long-term increase in U.S. LNG procurement, a shift that would realign energy flows and impact the broader regional standoff. Both leaders have also set an ambitious target of reaching $100 billion in bilateral trade, with new deals on aircraft and energy expected to be discussed.

However, experts caution that while Erdogan can facilitate dialogue, a sustainable peace will require broader geopolitical willingness from the European Union and within NATO itself. Trump’s delegation of mediation efforts to Turkey also risks sidelining European partners and Ukraine’s own agency in determining its future. Attempts to reach representatives from the Turkish presidency for further comment were not immediately successful.

The re-engagement underscores a broader shift in U.S. foreign policy under a potential second Trump term, one that favors bilateral partnerships with regional powers over traditional multilateral frameworks. The outcome of this diplomatic gambit will be closely watched, not only for its impact on the devastating war in Ukraine but for its power to reshape alliances and energy markets across Europe and the Middle East.