• Former President Donald Trump signaled a potential swift removal of U.S. sanctions on Türkiye during a meeting with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
  • The talks also centered on reinstating Türkiye into the F-35 fighter jet program, from which it was ejected in 2019.
  • Significant hurdles remain, including staunch Congressional opposition and legal barriers tied to Türkiye's acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems.

A Shift in Tone

In a meeting at the White House, former President Donald Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan explored the possibility of an almost immediate lifting of U.S. sanctions, a move that would mark a dramatic shift in a strained bilateral relationship. The discussions, described by people familiar with the matter as productive, also tackled the highly sensitive issue of allowing Türkiye back into the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program.

The potential policy reversal comes as Türkiye's economy grapples with severe inflation and a depreciated lira, conditions exacerbated by the earlier U.S. sanctions and tariffs. In a gesture seen as an olive branch ahead of the meeting, Ankara recently lifted certain tariffs on imports of U.S. goods, signaling a clear intent to de-escalate tensions.

The S-400 Stumbling Block

Efforts to restructure the defense partnership, however, have hit a significant snag. The primary point of contention remains Türkiye's purchase of the Russian S-400 air defense system, which Washington views as a threat to the security of NATO alliance technology. In response to the acquisition, the U.S. removed Türkiye from the F-35 program and imposed sanctions under the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) in 2020.

A spokesperson for the Turkish delegation, who asked not to be named due to the private nature of the talks, suggested that "creative solutions" were being discussed regarding the S-400s, but provided no specifics. Any path forward would require navigating explicit bans in the U.S. National Defence Authorization Act, which prohibits F-35 sales unless Türkiye divests itself of the Russian system. Congressional aides indicated that there has been no change in the legislative stance, with key lawmakers from both parties remaining firmly opposed.

Regional Repercussions

The prospect of renewed U.S.-Turkish defense cooperation is being watched closely by other American allies in the region, particularly Greece and Israel. Both nations have actively lobbied against resuming F-35 sales to Türkiye, citing longstanding regional rivalries and security concerns. A senior official from a NATO member country said the alliance is monitoring the situation, as a full reconciliation could impact strategic balances in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Despite the obstacles, the mere discussion of sanctions relief provided a boost to market sentiment in Istanbul. Shares in Turkish defense companies rose on the news, though analysts caution that any tangible economic benefits are contingent on overcoming the substantial political and legal barriers. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the specifics of the discussions.