• President Trump expresses preference for a diplomatic nuclear deal with Iran but insists on addressing ballistic missiles, reversing earlier signals of a narrower focus.
  • Talks remain ongoing without final decisions, with Israel pushing for broader restrictions and preemptive strike allowances amid intelligence on Iran's missile buildup.
  • Global oil markets face volatility from military threats and naval deployments, with sanctions relief tied to nuclear concessions and Iran demanding immediate economic normalization.

President Trump told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during their February 11, 2026 meeting in Washington that his preference is to pursue a diplomatic deal with Iran, according to people familiar with the matter. This marked their seventh meeting since Trump took office, focusing on Iran negotiations, Gaza, and regional issues, following briefings by US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff on the first round of Oman talks last week. Trump emphasized that any agreement must cover both nuclear and missile issues, a shift from earlier indications of a narrower nuclear focus, while warning of potential military action if talks fail.

Netanyahu aims to present intelligence showing Iran could produce 1,800–2,000 missiles soon and seeks US allowance for Israeli strikes, as no final decisions have been reached. Talks are ongoing under a prior 60-day deadline that passed without agreement, leading to past escalations, such as Israeli strikes on Iran. Efforts to restructure the diplomatic approach have hit a snag, with Trump leveraging naval assets deployed near Iran for "decisive" leverage but avoiding open-ended negotiations.

US sanctions aim to cut Iran's oil exports to zero, with potential relief tied to nuclear concessions like destroying enriched uranium stockpiles, while Iran demands immediate banking and trade normalization for tangible benefits. Global oil markets are experiencing volatility from threats of military action, amplifying energy price risks amid regional tensions. Without a deal, the company would be forced into bankruptcy, metaphorically speaking, as tensions could escalate into broader conflict.

Israel opposes narrow nuclear deals, lobbying against them and threatening preemptive strikes on Iranian facilities, which strains US-Israel ties. Iran insists on retaining enrichment rights and criticizes US threats as "barbed wire," with leaders like Ali Shamkhani pushing for quick sanctions relief while rejecting control over their program. Netanyahu seeks red lines on missiles, proxies, and funding to Axis of Resistance groups, calling the February 11 meeting "critical" against "global jihad" and urging prayer and freedom to strike Iran.

Short-term, the Netanyahu-Trump meeting could shift the US stance toward Israel's demands, with risk of Iranian missile buildup or Israeli preemption if no progress is made. Long-term, failed talks raise the odds of military confrontation, including the use of US bunker-busters, as experts predict resistance from Iran's Abbas Araghchi over mistrust. Witkoff targets a 60-day finalization, but disagreements on sanctions guarantees and enrichment persist, mirroring past cycles of tension.

Correction: An earlier version misstated the number of missiles Iran could produce; it is up to 2,000 soon, not 1,800–2,000 as previously reported.