• Trump to host leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan in Washington, DC, with plans to announce a peace deal on Friday.
  • The agreement aims to end decades of conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, following Azerbaijan's 2023 military victory and displacement of Armenian population.
  • The US-brokered deal could diminish Russia's influence in the region and spur economic integration.

A Potential Breakthrough in the South Caucasus

Donald Trump is set to announce a US-brokered peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan on Friday, marking a significant diplomatic push to resolve one of the most protracted conflicts in the post-Soviet space. The White House will host leaders from both nations in what is widely seen as an attempt to formalize recent negotiations that have inched toward a comprehensive deal.

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which dates back to the collapse of the Soviet Union, saw its most violent escalation in 2020 when Azerbaijan regained large swaths of territory. Last year, Baku consolidated control over the region, leading to the mass exodus of ethnic Armenians—a move condemned internationally as ethnic cleansing. While the Friday agreement is expected to acknowledge Azerbaijan’s sovereignty, it may also include provisions for regional stability and economic cooperation.

Geopolitical Shifts and Economic Prospects

Analysts note that the deal could significantly alter the balance of power in the South Caucasus, where Russia has long played the role of mediator. "This is a clear signal that Washington sees an opportunity to fill the diplomatic vacuum left by Moscow," said one expert familiar with the negotiations. The agreement may also unlock infrastructure projects, including a proposed transport corridor dubbed the "Trump Route," aimed at boosting regional connectivity.

Yet, challenges remain. Deep-seated mistrust between the two nations and unresolved grievances from past violence could complicate implementation. "A signed document is one thing, but real peace requires sustained engagement," cautioned a diplomatic source. Meanwhile, Trump’s involvement is seen as part of a broader effort to bolster his foreign policy credentials ahead of the election cycle.

Efforts to reach spokespeople from the Armenian and Azerbaijani delegations for comment were unsuccessful at the time of publication.