• President Trump is considering restricting U.S. diesel exports as prices hit a record $6.53 per gallon, but oil companies warn the move could backfire and raise gasoline prices.
  • The administration is weighing a full or partial ban, but energy officials caution that such a move could force refineries to cut production.
  • Diesel prices have surged due to global supply disruptions, and the debate has become politically urgent ahead of the November midterm elections.

A Political Firestorm Over Fuel

President Trump has endorsed examining a full or partial restriction on U.S. diesel exports, but no final policy has been announced. The issue has become politically urgent as the national average diesel price reached a record $6.53 per gallon, almost $3 above a year earlier, according to AAA. Trump said he has urged advisers to “not send out the diesel,” and indicated a decision could come quickly, though the White House is considering both a total ban and more limited curbs.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the administration is assessing whether such limits are feasible without damaging refinery operations. “We’re looking at all options,” Bessent told reporters. “But we need to ensure we don’t shoot ourselves in the foot.”

The debate is occurring as diesel supply has tightened globally, with disruptions linked to the wars involving Iran and Ukraine cutting refinery output and exports from major suppliers including Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. U.S. diesel is extraordinarily expensive relative to crude: CNBC reported diesel near $207 per barrel, more than $100 above crude, a signal of a severe shortage of refined middle distillates rather than merely a shortage of raw oil.

Industry Pushes Back

The administration’s own energy officials have warned against an export ban. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said export barriers could leave excess diesel on the Gulf Coast, lead refineries to reduce crude-processing rates, and thereby reduce gasoline production. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum also warned that other energy suppliers might retaliate.

The U.S. exports roughly 1.3 million barrels per day of diesel—about one-quarter of domestic refining output, according to the BBC. FreightWaves reported that exports since the Iran war began had risen to roughly 1.566 million barrels per day, compared with a 1.267 million-barrel-per-day average last year.

“The appropriate response is more supply and more flexibility, not export restrictions,” said Mike Sommers, CEO of the American Petroleum Institute. Todd Staples, president of the Texas Oil & Gas Association, warned that curbs could harm domestic jobs, cause shortages, and leave U.S. allies more dependent on China or Russia.

A Global Market in Turmoil

Internationally, Europe is structurally short of diesel and depends heavily on U.S. shipments to fill gaps left by sanctions and reduced Russian supply. A U.S. export cut could therefore strain allies such as the UK and Netherlands and raise global fuel prices, even if it briefly reduces prices in portions of the United States.

S&P Global (SPGI) estimates a ban could reduce refinery runs by nearly 2 million barrels per day, disrupting broader fuel markets. Analysts note that refineries are already operating at about 97% of capacity, suggesting limited room for output increases without new capacity or demand destruction.

The proposal recalls U.S. energy-market controls during the 1970s oil crises. The United States had broad crude-oil export restrictions from 1975 until Congress lifted them in 2015, after shale production made the country a far larger producer. The present episode differs because the U.S. is now a major refined-product exporter, making an export curb less a question of conserving scarce domestic oil than of redistributing limited refinery output between U.S. consumers and global buyers.

What to Watch

High diesel prices are a major electoral vulnerability ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. Republican candidates in competitive contests, including Alaska Senator Dan Sullivan, Iowa Representative Ashley Hinson, and Michigan’s Mike Rogers, have pushed for export restrictions; the Agriculture Department has also urged White House action on diesel costs.

Farmers are especially exposed during harvest season, and higher trucking costs can raise the prices consumers pay for food. A temporary export pause could, in theory, bolster U.S. inventories before winter. But critics argue it addresses the visible symptom—high U.S. pump prices—by disrupting the refinery system that produces diesel and gasoline together, potentially shifting costs to motorists, allies, and the wider global economy.

Whether the administration chooses a total ban, partial restrictions, a temporary pause, or no policy action remains uncertain. Any emergency legal authority cited for restrictions would be closely watched, since broad statutory petroleum-export authority changed after the 2015 repeal of the crude export ban. Emergency powers may be relevant, but the legal route is not straightforward.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the date of the midterm elections. They are on November 3.