• The Trump administration is evaluating a 90-day ban on U.S. diesel exports to cool record fuel prices ahead of the midterms, but no final decision has been made.
  • Diesel averages $6.52 per gallon, up $2.83 from a year ago, intensifying pressure on farmers, truckers, and consumers.
  • Internal opposition is fierce: Energy Secretary Chris Wright warns the move could backfire, reducing refinery output and driving gasoline and jet-fuel prices higher.

A Contentious Proposal

The White House is considering a 90-day ban on U.S. diesel exports as record fuel prices threaten to upend the upcoming midterm elections, according to people familiar with the matter. President Trump has publicly backed restricting exports, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is assessing whether a full or partial restriction is feasible. But no final policy has been announced, and the legal mechanism and duration remain unsettled.

Diesel prices have surged to an average of $6.52 per gallon, up $2.83 from a year ago, according to AAA. The spike has hit farmers, truckers, and consumers hard, prompting farm-state Republicans to push for action. Senator Chuck Grassley and others have urged the administration to act, while Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he is open to examining the option.

However, the proposal faces strong internal and industry opposition. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has explicitly warned that a ban would not work and could raise gasoline and jet-fuel prices. In a recent interview, Wright argued that preventing exports would force refineries to cut crude processing once diesel storage fills up, tightening supply of other fuels. The American Petroleum Institute and other industry groups oppose restrictions, noting that Gulf Coast diesel surplus cannot easily reach all domestic markets due to infrastructure and fuel-specification constraints.

The debate is intensifying as global supply disruptions—stemming from wars involving Iran and Ukraine—have cut diesel availability. U.S. diesel exports hit a record 1.6 million barrels per day in August, up from 1 million in February, with major destinations including Brazil, Mexico, and France. A ban would shift the shortage abroad, potentially raising prices for allies and undermining U.S. reliability as an energy supplier.

Analysts warn that the policy could backfire. “If you ban exports, you’re going to see refineries reduce runs, and that will tighten gasoline and jet fuel markets,” said one industry consultant, who requested anonymity to speak freely. “It’s a short-term political fix with long-term consequences.”

The administration is also weighing emergency authorities, including the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, though the precise legal basis and scope would depend on the final order. Congress could also legislate restrictions. The White House did not respond to requests for comment.

As the midterms approach, the pressure to act is mounting. But with no consensus on the policy’s effectiveness, the most likely outcome is continued analysis of a targeted, partial measure rather than a blanket ban. For now, the market remains on edge, with diesel futures volatile and traders watching for any signal from Washington.

Correction: A previous version of this article misstated the timing of the proposed ban. It is 90 days, not 60.