• Thursday's Trump-Xi summit is expected to produce only limited, procedural progress, with semiconductor export controls and rare-earth access remaining unresolved.
  • Negotiators have operationalized a U.S.-China Board of Trade, aiming for targeted tariff cuts on non-sensitive goods, potentially covering up to $30 billion in trade each way across roughly ten product categories.
  • Boeing (BA), U.S. agriculture, medical devices, and energy exporters could see modest benefits, while strategic sectors like semiconductors and AI remain untouched.

Fragile Prospects for a Grand Bargain

When President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet on Thursday, the two leaders will preside over a relationship defined more by managed rivalry than by any imminent breakthrough. According to people familiar with the preparations, negotiators have made the U.S.-China Board of Trade operational, a framework intended to identify a balanced set of products eligible for reciprocal tariff relief. But expectations for a semiconductor or rare-earth deal are low, with Jefferies (JEF) analysts noting that the most likely outcome is incremental progress on tariff reductions for non-sensitive goods.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer confirmed that the Board of Trade has been "operationalized" after preparatory talks, with working-level discussions continuing. The initial scope is expected to be modest: roughly ten product categories and potentially up to $30 billion of trade in each direction, though final lists and tariff rates have yet to be publicly confirmed. U.S. officials have flagged energy, agricultural products, and possibly medical devices as potential American beneficiaries, while China is expected to focus on consumer goods and low-tech manufacturing inputs.

What's Not on the Table

Notably absent from the likely package are any concessions on advanced semiconductors or rare-earth exports. The U.S. has treated chipmaking tools and AI-related capabilities as national-security issues, making export controls politically difficult to relax. China, for its part, continues to wield its dominance in rare-earth processing and magnet production as a counterweight. In April 2025, Beijing imposed export controls on seven rare-earth categories and associated magnets; even with the current truce, shipments have been volatile. Chinese rare-earth magnet shipments to the U.S. were reportedly 512 metric tons in August, down 20% month-on-month and 13% year-on-year.

"Institutional investors are really focused on regulatory stability," said one person briefed on the talks, speaking on condition of anonymity. "But the strategic competition is not going away."

A Narrow Path to Tariff Relief

The Board of Trade concept reflects a practical attempt to separate commercially negotiable trade from national-security competition. Lower duties on farm products, energy, medical equipment, and selected consumer goods could help exporters and importers, reduce certain input costs, and offer limited relief to consumers. But the package is not expected to be large enough to fundamentally reshape either economy's growth path.

Boeing remains a visible bargaining item. China was reported to have committed in May to buy 200 Boeing aircraft, but delivery on that pledge remains uncertain. Earlier claims of a potential order as large as 750 planes have not been confirmed by Beijing. Similarly, the White House said China had committed to at least $17 billion annually of U.S. farm purchases and reaffirmed a prior 25-million-metric-ton annual soybean commitment, though fulfillment has been uneven.

The November 10 Deadline Looms

A key near-term uncertainty is the scheduled November 10 expiry of the current trade-truce arrangements. Morgan Stanley (MS) identifies that date as critical for both Chinese rare-earth restrictions and U.S. technology controls. Without an extension, companies could face renewed planning uncertainty, and markets may reprice the risk of tariff escalation, rare-earth disruptions, and tighter technology controls.

"We have a constant balance with the banks, which really we consider our partners and not only our binary competitors," said one industry executive, drawing a parallel to how European firms have adapted to regulatory shifts. The same could apply to U.S.-China commercial ties: adaptation, not resolution.

Managed Rivalry, Not Reset

The summit is unlikely to resolve the technology conflict. Instead, it may preserve a fragile détente or set up further talks. The two sides possess different but interlocking choke points: the U.S. holds advantages in advanced chip technology, while China holds substantial critical-minerals leverage. That dynamic encourages continued supply-chain diversification and investment in rare-earth production outside China, even if a cordial communiqué emerges.

Representatives for the White House and China's Ministry of Commerce did not respond to requests for comment.

Clarification: An earlier version of this article misstated the month of China's rare-earth export controls. They were imposed in April 2025, not April 2024.