• President Trump's approval rating remains at 33%, matching his career low, according to a Reuters (TRI)/Ipsos (IPS.PA) poll.
  • Dissatisfaction with the Iran war and cost of living is driving the decline, with 71% disapproving of his handling of living costs.
  • Democrats hold a significant enthusiasm edge ahead of the midterms, with 46% very enthusiastic about voting versus 31% for Republicans.

A Persistent Political Drag

President Trump's approval rating is stuck at 33%, the lowest of his presidency, according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos survey. The poll, conducted Aug. 21-24 among 1,215 U.S. adults, shows the president's job performance rating unchanged from the previous reading, underscoring the durability of his political challenges. The primary drivers are the increasingly unpopular military conflict with Iran and a cost-of-living squeeze that has pushed gasoline prices more than $1 per gallon above pre-war levels.

"The combination of a protracted war and rising everyday costs is a toxic mix for any administration," said a senior political analyst who asked not to be named. "It's not just that voters disapprove of the president—they are actively angry about the impact on their wallets."

War Fatigue Deepens

Support for U.S. military action against Iran has dropped to 31%, down from 37% in March and 34% earlier in August. The erosion is not confined to Democrats; Reuters reporting indicates support has fallen among self-identified Republicans as well. A striking 83% of respondents expect U.S. involvement to continue for an extended period, a sign of growing war fatigue.

The administration has sought to address consumer price pressures, with Trump expected to meet refiners and fuel retailers to emphasize efforts to lower gasoline prices. But the impact of the conflict on global energy markets is profound: disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, a route handling roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG supplies, has constrained shipments and increased market risk.

Brent crude settled near $89.31 per barrel on Aug. 28, down more than 5% for the week amid hopes for shipping talks, but renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities on Aug. 31 pushed Brent to about $91.25, up 3.58% intraday. U.S. gasoline prices have risen about 30% over the past year, and diesel prices more than 50%, according to Reuters analysis. These increases feed directly into household budgets and raise transportation and logistics costs across the economy.

The Affordability Gap

The political stakes are clear: the Reuters/Ipsos Aug. 25 registered-voter survey found Democrats leading Republicans 36% to 28% on which party has the better approach to living costs—the widest Democratic advantage on that question since October 2025. That creates a midterm vulnerability for Republicans, as affordability has become a central Democratic campaign message.

Among independents, 36% favor Democrats for Congress compared with 22% for Republicans, a gap that could prove decisive in November. The enthusiasm gap is also stark: 46% of Democrats say they are very enthusiastic about voting, versus only 31% of Republicans.

"The war has undercut Trump's promise to reduce everyday costs," noted a Democratic strategist. "Voters are hurting, and they are looking for someone to blame."

A Stalemate Ahead?

Reuters' energy analysis characterizes the conflict as a potential stalemate that could extend into 2027, with continuing consequences for global energy security and inflation. The central variable remains whether the parties can establish a durable arrangement for the Strait of Hormuz and contain direct military escalation.

The conflict has removed an estimated 5–7 million barrels per day of supply from normal flows, and almost half of the world's oil now originates in countries affected by conflict. This backdrop means even localized military developments can have outsized effects on global prices and domestic U.S. politics.

As the midterms approach, the administration faces a daunting challenge: convincing voters that it has a credible path to reduced fighting, safer shipping, and lower consumer fuel prices. Without that, the 33% approval may be more than a low point; it could be a ceiling.

This article was updated on Aug. 31 to reflect the latest Brent crude price movement.