• President Donald Trump's approval rating remains at 33%, matching the lowest level of his political career, as disapproval rises to 65%.
  • The prolonged conflict with Iran and its impact on gasoline prices are key factors behind the slump, with support for U.S. military action falling to 31%.
  • The political drag comes ahead of the November midterms, with Democrats now holding a slight edge on economic issues.

President Donald Trump's approval rating remained at 33% in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, matching the lowest level recorded for him in either term, as disapproval climbed to 65%. The August 21-24 survey of 1,215 U.S. adults, which has a margin of error of 3 percentage points, followed a similar reading from August 14-17, when approval was also 33% and disapproval 64%. Earlier in August, approval had dipped from 35%, underscoring a steady decline.

The immediate political drag appears to be the prolonged U.S. conflict with Iran, its visible effect on gasoline prices, and broader cost-of-living concerns. Support for U.S. military action against Iran has fallen to 31% from 34% earlier in August and 37% in March. Fully 83% of respondents expect U.S. involvement to continue for an extended period, reflecting deep skepticism about a quick resolution.

Trump has defended higher gasoline prices as a price worth paying to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, but voters appear increasingly doubtful that the conflict will be short or successful at an acceptable domestic cost. Reuters reported that the average U.S. gasoline price was about $4.08 per gallon in mid-August, 29% higher than a year earlier, a highly visible burden for households.

The polling slump is occurring against a mixed economic backdrop. Underlying U.S. activity has remained comparatively resilient, but household-facing inflation, especially energy, has stayed elevated. Annual PCE inflation peaked at 4.1% in May after the conflict began and was still 3.7% in July, well above the Federal Reserve's 2% goal. Core PCE inflation, which excludes food and energy, was 3.3% year over year, indicating that price pressures extend beyond fuel.

The conflict has impaired energy trade through the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil flows passed before the war. Brent crude settled around $89.70 per barrel on August 27, easing from some peaks but remaining sensitive to developments. The disruption has compounded inflation challenges, and trade policy adds another layer: Reuters reported that previous U.S. import tariffs raised prices for a range of goods, and failed Canada trade talks were set to bring new levies on $20 billion in Canadian imports, further squeezing consumers.

Financial markets are balancing slower inflation than the May peak with concern that it remains stubborn. After the July PCE report, federal-funds futures implied roughly a 40% probability of a September Federal Reserve rate increase, up from about 36% before the release.

The approval result has direct implications for the November 3 congressional midterm elections. Reuters reported concern among Republicans over defending a narrow House majority and increased Democratic optimism about Senate competitiveness. In Reuters/Ipsos polling, 38% of voters said Democrats would handle the economy better, versus 35% for Republicans, and Democrats were also viewed as better on the cost of living.

Immigration remains a comparatively stronger issue for Republicans, with 40% of registered voters favoring their approach versus 38% for Democrats, but that was the narrowest GOP advantage of Trump's term, down from a 26-point lead in January 2025. Military policy also shows vulnerability: only about one in five Americans, and only about half of Republicans, said the Iran war had been worth it in the August 14-17 poll.

The administration has widened sanctions aimed at cutting Iran's economic lifeline while avoiding some of the most severe available measures, preserving pressure but leaving the prospect of a swift resolution uncertain. The conflict's impact extends beyond the United States because the Gulf is central to global oil supply. Reuters estimated that nearly half of the world's oil comes from countries affected by conflict in 2026, magnifying risks to global energy prices, inflation, transport costs, and industrial activity.

The immediate burden falls unevenly. Households and commuters feel gasoline and food-price increases quickly, especially lower-income families for whom fuel represents a larger share of monthly budgets. Small businesses, logistics firms, farmers, airlines, and delivery companies face higher fuel and input costs, which can be passed through or absorbed through lower margins. Energy producers and refiners may benefit from higher prices, though they also face policy uncertainty and supply-chain disruption. Military families and service members bear the human and operational costs of an extended conflict, and immigrant communities and civil-liberties advocates remain affected by intensified immigration enforcement.

Public debate centers on the trade-off between the administration's stated nonproliferation objective and the domestic costs of a war that many Americans now expect to endure. The sharp partisan gap is notable but not absolute: 87% of Democrats and 71% of Republicans in the earlier poll expected U.S. involvement in Iran to last a long time.

Trump began his second term in 2025 with approval just under 50%, according to Reuters' account. His standing weakened after he ordered strikes on Iran alongside Israel and the ensuing conflict disrupted a substantial share of world oil trade. The current 33% rating matches his December 2017 first-term low, making it a historical political warning sign rather than a routine fluctuation.

Near-term, the administration is expected to emphasize gasoline-price relief; Reuters reported that Trump planned meetings with refiners and fuel retailers as officials sought to reduce consumer pressure ahead of the midterms. Approval could recover if Iran-related tensions de-escalate, oil flows normalize, and pump prices fall meaningfully. Conversely, renewed attacks, further restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz, or another rise in crude and gasoline prices could deepen voter dissatisfaction. The Federal Reserve faces a difficult choice: resilient growth and sticky inflation could favor tighter monetary policy, while higher rates would also raise borrowing costs for consumers and businesses.

Longer-term, the combination of low presidential approval, public skepticism toward the war, and a modest Democratic edge on economic management increases the possibility of a more competitive—or potentially unfavorable—midterm environment for Republicans. The result would shape Trump's ability to advance legislation, sustain funding priorities, and manage oversight of foreign policy. The most important variable is whether the administration can convert its Iran strategy into a credible, bounded outcome. A durable de-escalation could ease energy inflation and improve the political outlook. An open-ended conflict, by contrast, risks entrenching the perception that Trump has fallen short of two core promises: restraining inflation and avoiding long-lasting wars.