• Former President Donald Trump claims Thanksgiving dinner costs are 25% lower this year, citing Walmart's meal basket
  • Economists and fact-checkers say the comparison is misleading due to smaller portions and product substitutions
  • Overall grocery prices remain up 2.7% year-over-year, with traditional Thanksgiving meal costs down only 2-3%

Former President Donald Trump took to Truth Social this week claiming Thanksgiving dinner costs have plunged 25% from last year, pointing to Walmart's prepackaged Thanksgiving meal basket as evidence. "Thanksgiving costs are 25% LOWER this year than last," Trump posted, amplifying a message that has been echoed by White House communications.

However, economists and independent fact-checkers are pushing back on the dramatic figure, calling it misleading. While Walmart's 2025 Thanksgiving basket is indeed priced approximately 25% lower than last year's offering, the comparison isn't apples-to-apples. According to analysis by the Associated Press, this year's basket contains fewer items and substitutes lower-cost products, making direct year-over-year comparisons problematic.

"The basket composition has changed significantly," said a Wells Fargo economist who reviewed the pricing data. "When you adjust for the substitutions and reduced quantities, the actual price decline for a comparable Thanksgiving meal is closer to 2-3%."

The American Farm Bureau Federation, which tracks traditional Thanksgiving meal costs separately from retailer-specific bundles, confirms that overall grocery prices remain up about 2.7% from 2024 levels. Their methodology uses consistent product sizes and brands year-over-year, providing a more reliable measure of inflation's impact on holiday meals.

Walmart officials declined to comment specifically on the political claims but noted their Thanksgiving meal deal is designed to provide value to customers during the holiday season. "We're focused on helping families stretch their budgets," a Walmart spokesperson said in an emailed statement, without addressing the composition changes in this year's basket.

The controversy highlights the challenges in measuring inflation's real-world impact, particularly around highly visible consumer events like holiday meals. Retailers including Aldi, Target, Lidl, and Schnucks have also promoted aggressive Thanksgiving deals this year, though economists note these often involve similar trade-offs in product quality or quantity.

Behind the scenes, wholesale turkey prices have actually surged approximately 75% since October 2024, according to Purdue University's College of Agriculture. However, major retailers with advance purchasing contracts have been able to shield consumers from the full brunt of these increases—at least for now.

Market analysts suggest the political focus on Thanksgiving pricing reflects broader concerns about food affordability heading into 2026. "These claims are really about the narrative around inflation and household budgets," said a retail analyst who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive pricing topics. "The actual data shows modest relief at best, not the dramatic price drops being claimed."

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the timing of wholesale turkey price increases. Prices have risen 75% since October 2024, not 2023.