• The UAE has endured 186 missile and 812 drone attacks from Iran since February 28, 2026—the most of any Gulf nation—resulting in three deaths and around 70 injuries, with strikes targeting civilian infrastructure and oil facilities.
  • Emirati officials reserved the right to respond militarily in a March 2 briefing, signaling a shift from prior de-escalation efforts and fostering rare GCC unity against Tehran amid growing regional anger.
  • The conflict has disrupted Dubai's role as a global financial and tourism hub, with attacks on Jebel Ali port and infrastructure risking economic shockwaves and potential oil price spikes.

Escalating Tensions in the Gulf

The United Arab Emirates is actively considering military strikes against Iran after facing the brunt of Iranian aggression in the ongoing US-Israel-Iran war that erupted on February 28, 2026. According to people familiar with the matter, Emirati leaders held a press briefing on March 2 to outline national security measures, emphasizing their reserved right to retaliate. This marks a stark departure from the "gentlemen's agreement" between the UAE and Iran established in 2019, which had previously fostered de-escalation in the region.

Since the conflict began, the UAE has intercepted most of the 174 ballistic missiles and 689 drones launched by Iran through March 2, but 13 missiles and 44 drones impacted its territory, killing at least three and wounding approximately 70 people. The assaults have targeted critical civilian infrastructure in Dubai, including the Jebel Ali port, evoking comparisons to the "UAE's 9/11" following similar Houthi attacks in 2022. One official, speaking anonymously due to the sensitivity of the discussions, noted that the scale of these attacks—ten times larger than previous incidents—has forced a reassessment of security strategies, as prior efforts to maintain neutrality have failed.

Economic and Political Fallout

These developments are sending shockwaves through the UAE's economy, which relies heavily on Dubai's reputation as a tax-free hub for global elites, billionaires, and tourism. Strikes on oil and gas facilities have raised concerns about potential energy price spikes, while the targeting of civilian areas has prompted emergency measures affecting expatriates and businesses. Without a swift resolution, the situation could lead to broader financial market disruptions, according to analysts monitoring the region.

Politically, the attacks have catalyzed rare solidarity among Gulf Cooperation Council states, despite historical feuds between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. Saudi Arabia and other GCC members have expressed support for the UAE's stance, with Israeli and Saudi sources suggesting the conflict could draw in additional regional powers. This unity comes as US and Israeli forces established local air superiority over western Iran by March 2, striking over 200 air defense systems, nuclear sites like Natanz, and IRGC facilities, while sinking 11 Iranian ships. In response, Iran has also targeted Saudi airbases, Kuwait, Bahrain, and US positions, escalating the risk of a wider regional war that might involve Hezbollah, Houthis, and Iraqi militias.

Future Implications and Human Impact

Efforts to restructure the UAE's security posture have hit a snag as Iranian drone threats persist, despite degraded capabilities from recent strikes. The human toll is palpable, with residents in Dubai facing heightened anxiety and disrupted daily life. Attempts to reach UAE defense officials for further comment were unsuccessful, but sources indicate that short-term risks include heightened GCC retaliation and ongoing oil disruptions, while long-term outcomes could transform the Gulf order with stronger anti-Iran alliances. Experts predict that a military response from the UAE or Saudi Arabia is increasingly likely, as Iran fears further escalation, and US-Israel operations might aim to topple the regime.

In related developments, Iran has hit all six GCC states and US bases in Iraq, Kuwait, and Jordan, with the IDF preparing for potential Hezbollah involvement. This mirrors the 2019 Abqaiq attack that initially spurred Gulf de-escalation, now reversed in a more volatile climate. As the situation evolves, the UAE's next moves will be closely watched, with implications for regional stability and global markets hanging in the balance.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the number of drone attacks; it has been updated to reflect the latest verified figures.