• The UAE is considering a third pipeline to reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz, but its second crude-export pipeline is already under construction and targeting a 2027 start.
  • A proposed third line would carry refined products such as diesel, gasoline and jet fuel, according to several reports, rather than crude as initially described.
  • No construction timetable, budget or capacity has been confirmed for the third pipeline, leaving its impact on global energy flows uncertain.

A Third Line, but Not Yet a Project

The United Arab Emirates is examining the possibility of adding a third pipeline to its export network, part of a broader push to reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. But the proposal remains at an early stage, with no confirmed capacity, budget or construction schedule, according to people familiar with the matter.

The distinction matters. The UAE’s second crude-export pipeline—the ADNOC West–East Pipeline—is under construction and targeting a 2027 start. Argus reported on October 30 that the link could begin serving customers in the second quarter of 2027, while Bloomberg has indicated a potential start in the initial months of the year. The official commitment remains 2027, and the precise commissioning date has not been confirmed.

A separate proposal emerged on November 2, when the CEO of Sharjah National Oil Corporation described discussions over a roughly 100-kilometre corridor from Al Hamriyah to an east-coast port. That line could carry both crude and refined products, though it should not automatically be treated as the same project as ADNOC’s proposed third pipeline.

Refined Products, Not Crude?

The headline description of the third line as a “crude oil” pipeline is not consistently supported. Several reports describe a potential third line carrying refined fuels such as diesel, gasoline and jet fuel. No confirmed construction timetable, budget or capacity for such a project was identified in the sources reviewed.

Capacity figures for the existing and planned infrastructure also require care. The existing Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline, known as ADCOP, has been operating since 2012 and carries onshore Murban crude to Fujairah outside Hormuz, with capacity reported at up to 1.8 million barrels per day. The second West–East Pipeline is expected to add approximately 1.5 million barrels per day of capacity, enabling Upper Zakum offshore crude to load at Fujairah.

Official announcements describe the second project as “doubling” export capacity through Fujairah, while Argus estimates combined pipeline capacity of approximately 3.3 million barrels per day. Pipeline throughput, storage capacity and terminal loading capability are different measures and should not be treated as interchangeable.

Export Recovery and the Hormuz Threat

The pipeline programme has gained urgency after the early disruption of the US–Iran war. On November 3, UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said oil exports had recovered strongly, sometimes exceeding pre-conflict levels. Argus, citing Kpler, reported that crude and condensate exports had fallen from approximately 3.3 million barrels per day in February to just under 2 million in March. The existing pipeline to Fujairah helped sustain exports during that period.

Al-Mazrouei said on November 2 that the UAE would invest in export routes, overseas storage and shipping capacity because the course of the conflict remained unpredictable. Trade Minister Thani Al Zeyoudi has described the goal as “zero Hormuz dependency,” while maintaining that unrestricted passage through the strait remains essential.

The immediate geopolitical driver is the disruption following US and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February and subsequent Iranian targeting of shipping, as described by Argus. Before the disruption, Hormuz handled around 20 million barrels per day of crude, condensate and refined products, according to Argus. Additional bypass capacity could therefore reduce the volume exposed to disruption—but cannot by itself eliminate the global bottleneck.

ADNOC’s Broader Strategy

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company is Abu Dhabi’s state-owned integrated energy group, spanning oil and gas production, refining, chemicals, trading and related services. Reuters (NASDAQ:TRI) reported a target of 5 million barrels per day of oil-production capacity by 2027, brought forward by three years. Production capacity is not the same as actual output or export capacity.

The reviewed sources do not provide a current consolidated ADNOC parent-company income statement, so subsidiary results should not be presented as the group’s earnings. As one recent indicator, listed subsidiary ADNOC Drilling reported first-nine-month 2026 revenue of $3.71 billion, up 2% year on year; EBITDA of $1.66 billion, up 2%; and net profit of $1.07 billion, up 1%. Those results reflect drilling and oilfield services—not the profitability or financing of the pipeline projects.

Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber remained ADNOC’s managing director and group CEO at ADIPEC on November 2. His address highlighted integrated trading, logistics and XRG’s international gas, chemicals and energy investments as elements of the group’s resilience strategy. The reviewed project reporting did not identify a pipeline-related leadership replacement or restructuring.

What’s Next

The clearest near-term milestone is commissioning the second pipeline in 2027. Reports from buyers suggest a possible first-half start, but the difference between Bloomberg’s early-2027 indication and Argus’s second-quarter reporting makes a precise date uncertain. Investors and customers should distinguish initial commissioning from sustained commercial throughput.

A third line could extend protection to additional crude or refined-product exports, depending on its eventual design. However, its economic significance cannot yet be quantified reliably without confirmed capacity, cost, route and cargo specifications. Kpler analyst Homayoun Falakshahi described the UAE’s bypass expansion in August as the region’s most advanced project. The Middle East Institute likewise expects Gulf producers to reassess pipelines, terminals, storage and alternative shipping routes following the conflict.

The strongest supported outlook is therefore a sustained regional investment cycle in export redundancy—not an immediate end to Hormuz’s importance.

Correction: An earlier version of this article described the potential third pipeline as a crude oil line. Several reports indicate it would carry refined products.