• Existing-home sales rose 0.2% month-over-month to a 4.02 million annualized rate in April, below the 4.05 million consensus estimate.
  • The modest uptick reflects tentative stabilization amid constrained inventory and mixed regional performance.
  • Analysts expect sales to remain range-bound unless mortgage rates drop significantly or supply improves.

April Sales Data

Existing-home sales in the U.S. edged up 0.2% in April from March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million, according to data released Thursday by the National Association of Realtors. The figure came in slightly below economists' expectations of 4.05 million, signaling a slow recovery in the housing market.

"We're seeing a modest pickup, but inventory remains tight and affordability is still a challenge for many buyers," said Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist, in a statement. "The market is finding a new equilibrium after the rate-driven volatility of recent years."

The month-over-month gain was driven by a 2.6% increase in the Northeast and a 1.2% rise in the South, while the Midwest and West posted declines of 1.1% and 0.7%, respectively. The national median existing-home price rose 3.4% year-over-year to $407,600, indicating that price pressures remain despite sluggish sales volumes.

Market Context

Housing inventory stood at 3.5 months of supply at the current sales pace, up from 3.2 months in March but still below the 6 months typically associated with a balanced market. Total housing inventory at the end of April was 1.21 million units, up 9% from a year ago but still historically low.

Mortgage rates hovered around 6.5% in April, down from the 8% peak in 2023 but still elevated compared to pandemic-era lows. The Federal Reserve's signaling of potential rate cuts later this year has provided some relief, though affordability constraints continue to limit first-time homebuyer activity, which accounted for just 30% of sales.

Outlook

Analysts expect sales to stabilize near current levels in the near term. "Without a meaningful decline in mortgage rates or a surge in listings, transaction volumes are likely to stay in the 4.0-4.2 million range," said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. "However, if the Fed cuts rates and supply improves, we could see a more sustained recovery in the second half."

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the month-over-month change for the Midwest. It declined 1.1%, not 2.2%.