• October CPI will lack year-over-year headline and core rates due to missing 2025 data from the government shutdown.
  • Monthly figures still due Tuesday, with headline expected +0.3% MoM and core +0.2% MoM.
  • Annual real earnings growth also unavailable; markets focus on monthly details for Fed clues.

Missing Annual Comparisons

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release October consumer price data on Tuesday but without the customary year-over-year headline and core inflation rates, because prices from October 2025 were never collected during the government shutdown and could not be recovered. Annual real earnings growth will also be omitted, though monthly inflation figures will still be published. The omission stems from a measurement gap, not a cancellation of the report, and reflects the lingering statistical fallout from last year’s funding lapse.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect headline CPI to rise 0.3% month over month, a deceleration from September’s 0.6% gain, while core CPI is forecast to increase 0.2%, down from 0.3% the prior month. A FactSet (NYSE:FDS) consensus cited by Morningstar (NASDAQ:MORN) showed a similar 0.24% headline estimate and 0.2% for core. Without the October 2025 base, however, these monthly figures cannot be translated into an official annual rate, leaving a key gauge of inflation invisible to markets and the public.

Energy and Autos to Drive Slowdown

Much of the expected monthly slowdown is attributed to energy, according to UBS (NYSE:UBS), which estimates energy contributed about 0.39 percentage points to September’s headline increase but only about 0.04 points in October. Falling new- and used-car prices may also offer relief. Still, a 0.3% monthly rise means prices continue to climb, just at a slower pace—a distinction policymakers and investors must weigh carefully.

Jason Pride of Glenmede described the report as particularly consequential for the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook, especially after stronger-than-expected employment data. Futures markets recently priced roughly an 80% probability of a quarter-point December rate hike, according to Morningstar, though that estimate is dated and not a live quote. The Fed’s 2% inflation target is measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, not CPI, but the central bank still relies on monthly CPI and other data to gauge price pressures.

Shutdown’s Long Shadow

The data gap traces back to the 2025 appropriations lapse, when BLS suspended CPI collection from October 1 through November 12. The missing October 2025 observations have already affected rent and owners’ equivalent rent indexes earlier this year, and BLS has consulted expert panels on how to address disrupted expenditure data. Those missing consumer-expenditure figures will also influence the spending weights used in 2027 CPI calculations, meaning the shutdown’s statistical impact will persist well beyond this single report.

“What institutional investors like us are really focused on is regulatory stability,” said one market participant, speaking generally about data dependability. BLS has emphasized plans to strengthen infrastructure and explain methodological changes publicly, but the agency declined to comment beyond its published statement. A request for further comment was not immediately returned.

For households, the loss of the familiar annual rate may make inflation harder to interpret, while workers and employers will lack the published annual real-earnings comparison. Private estimates may circulate—FactSet published a 4.0% year-over-year headline consensus based on four estimates—but these are not official BLS results and rely on assumptions about the missing base period. As markets await Tuesday’s release, the monthly figures and their components will carry added weight, even as the annual benchmark remains out of reach.

Clarification: An earlier version of this article misstated the date of the October CPI release. It is scheduled for Tuesday, November 10, at 8:30 a.m. ET.