- AI-related capital spending contributed over 1 percentage point to U.S. Q2 2025 GDP, a significant economic driver.
- BlackRock expects this spending to contribute three times its usual share to U.S. growth in 2026, viewing the cycle as fundamentally sound.
- A critical constraint on the AI buildout is energy demand, with estimates of future power needs from data centers varying dramatically and raising questions about grid capacity.
AI Spending Boosts U.S. Growth
AI-related capital spending has become a powerful engine for the U.S. economy, with BlackRock's latest analysis showing it accounted for over 1 percentage point of U.S. Q2 2025 GDP. This extraordinary contribution, which includes investments in chips, data centers, and related infrastructure, is expected to keep driving growth. According to the firm's 2026 Investment Outlook, AI capital spending is projected to contribute three times its usual share to U.S. growth next year.
"We remain optimistic on AI, viewing it as a key accelerator for the economy," said Wei Li, Global Chief Investment Strategist at BlackRock, in a briefing on the outlook. The firm estimates that U.S. corporate AI investment ambitions fall within a $5-8 trillion global range through 2030, with the majority concentrated domestically.
This optimism is rooted in a belief that the current cycle is fundamentally different from past tech bubbles, like the dot-com era. BlackRock analysts point to valuation metrics, earnings-driven growth, and financing methods as key distinctions. The S&P 500 Information Technology Index currently trades around 30x forward earnings, elevated but well below the 55x multiple seen at the dot-com peak. Furthermore, today's AI investment is largely funded through corporate retained earnings rather than speculative debt, making it more resilient to higher interest rates.
Market performance has reflected this volatile but potent theme. After a recent 4% weekly drop in the Nasdaq Composite—its worst performance since April—U.S. stocks bounced back in a holiday-shortened week. The S&P 500 gained almost 4% and the Nasdaq gained about 5% as investor focus returned to AI's long-term potential.
However, the breakneck pace of investment is hitting a physical snag: energy. Discussions at BlackRock's 2026 Outlook Forum centered on the massive and uncertain power demands of AI data centers, with estimates of future needs varying dramatically. This energy constraint has become a central challenge, intertwined with the broader U.S.-China strategic competition in AI, where both nations are grappling with how to power their ambitions.
Beyond energy, the financing of this buildout is transforming capital markets. Mega-cap tech companies are increasingly turning to bond sales to fund projects, and private credit markets are playing a larger role, blurring the lines between public and private financing. Despite these shifts, public credit markets have remained resilient, with spreads near historic lows.
Looking ahead, BlackRock's constructively positioned outlook for U.S. equities hinges on the thesis that this represents a genuine infrastructure transformation with macroeconomic significance. The sustainability of growth, however, depends on resolving the critical bottleneck of energy infrastructure. As one portfolio manager noted in the forum, "The question isn't if the AI demand is real, but whether we can physically build fast enough to meet it."
Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the timeframe for the projected global AI investment range. It is through 2030, not 2026.