• Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 U.S. capital expenditure growth forecast to about 7.8%, signaling resilience despite higher oil prices.
  • AI-driven infrastructure spending and tax incentives are expected to offset headwinds from tariffs and manufacturing frictions.
  • GDP growth is projected at 2.1%, with oil price volatility seen as a manageable risk.

Goldman Sachs has lifted its 2026 U.S. capital expenditure growth forecast to approximately 7.8%, arguing that higher oil prices are unlikely to derail robust business investment momentum. The bank sees continued strength from AI-enabled infrastructure spending and favorable tax incentives, which should counterbalance near-term drags from tariffs and manufacturing disruptions. GDP growth is projected at 2.1% for the same period, according to the firm's updated outlook.

The revised forecast comes as oil prices have eased from recent highs, but remain elevated amid geopolitical tensions. "The capex cycle is being sustained by structural drivers like AI compute demand and policy support, which are largely independent of oil price swings," a Goldman economist noted. The bank expects hyperscaler data-center buildouts and AI-related equipment spending to continue expanding at a rapid clip, with industry estimates suggesting hundreds of billions of dollars in investment over the next several years.

Goldman's optimism contrasts with some concerns that higher energy costs could dampen business confidence. However, the bank believes that the current investment wave is unique, driven by secular trends rather than cyclical factors. "AI infrastructure spending is a multi-year phenomenon that will keep capex elevated even as other sectors face headwinds," the economist added.

Policy support remains a key pillar. Tax incentives tied to infrastructure and semiconductor manufacturing are expected to encourage further capital outlays, especially in technology and energy-related sectors. Meanwhile, the bank acknowledges that tariffs and manufacturing slowdowns pose risks but sees them as manageable in the context of overall spending momentum.

The outlook also implies continued demand for data-center construction, networking gear, and advanced chips, benefiting a range of technology and industrial firms. Labor markets could see shifts as investment in AI and infrastructure creates demand for specialized roles.

We reached out to Goldman Sachs for additional comment but did not receive an immediate response.

*Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the year of the forecast; the correct year is 2026.