- The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimate for Q3 2025 real GDP growth has been revised upward to 3.41% from 3.09%.
- The increase reflects stronger-than-anticipated personal consumption and robust services spending, according to the model's latest reading.
- The rising nowcast suggests continued economic resilience, potentially influencing near-term monetary policy expectations as the Fed awaits official data.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s influential GDPNow model now points to a 3.41% seasonally adjusted annual rate of growth for the U.S. economy in the third quarter, a notable increase from its previous estimate of 3.09%. This revision, based on incoming high-frequency economic data, signals a stronger near-term economic trajectory than previously modeled.
The upward adjustment is primarily attributed to recent indicators showing robust personal consumption expenditures and resilient activity in the services sector. The model, which provides a running 'nowcast' of GDP growth ahead of the official Bureau of Economic Analysis report, is closely watched by market participants and policymakers for real-time signals on economic momentum.
While not an official forecast, the GDPNow figure offers one of the most timely snapshots of economic activity. The consistent upward trend in the estimate throughout the quarter suggests underlying economic strength that could factor into the Federal Reserve's ongoing assessment of the growth-inflation balance. A spokesperson for the Atlanta Fed declined to comment beyond the published model data.
The model will continue to be updated with new data releases, with the next estimate expected imminently. The official advance estimate of Q3 GDP from the BEA is scheduled for release later this quarter.