• U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent forecasts a pickup in manufacturing and construction jobs in coming months, attributing gains to Trump administration policies like tariffs and tax incentives.
  • Recent economic data shows flat or declining employment in these sectors, with construction payrolls dropping 11,000 in December 2025 and manufacturing facing some losses amid broader slowdowns.
  • Business investment surged 12% through Q3 2025—the largest non-pandemic rise in over a decade—driven by full expensing for factories and equipment under Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill Act."

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is projecting a significant acceleration in manufacturing and construction employment in the coming months, pointing to Trump administration policies like tariffs and tax incentives as key drivers despite recent data showing subdued growth in these sectors.

In remarks that highlighted what he called a "record groundbreaking pickup" in factory construction, Bessent emphasized that Trump's tariffs and trade policies are spurring domestic investment, including high-precision manufacturing and factory builds. He cited examples like Amazon (AMZN)'s $120 billion investment and Minnesota firms investing $3.4 billion in fiscal 2025, according to people familiar with his comments. "I see a pickup in manufacturing jobs in the coming months," Bessent said, adding that he expects a continued pickup in construction jobs as well.

Efforts to boost U.S.-based hiring and production through tariffs have hit some snags, however. Higher material costs from those tariffs have delayed projects and contributed to construction payrolls dropping 11,000 in December 2025, with near-flat annual growth of 14,000 jobs (0.2%). Manufacturing has seen some losses amid broader economic slowdowns, with companies like John Deere (DE) laying off over 200 workers and projecting hundreds of millions in tariff-related losses. When reached for comment, a Treasury spokesperson reiterated Bessent's optimism but declined to address specific job figures.

Without a sustained CapEx comeback, the administration's job growth projections could falter. Bessent has forecasted a "substantial acceleration" in the economy by year-end, with companies planning increased capital expenditures and employment. In a recent interview, he pointed to business investment surging 12% through Q3 2025—the largest non-pandemic rise in over a decade—thanks to policies like full expensing for factories and equipment. "What we're seeing is regulatory stability and tax certainty driving foreign direct investment into the country," he noted, crediting Trump's legislation for restoring confidence.

Regional variations exist, with gains in industrial projects offsetting stagnation elsewhere. Builders, meanwhile, face hiring caution due to cost pressures from elevated interest rates and economic uncertainty, potentially delaying opportunities for construction labor. Wage growth has signaled demand for skilled workers, but public debate contrasts administration claims with federal data showing subdued growth. Democrats have highlighted tariff-related losses, while Republicans blame Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for economic headwinds.

Looking ahead, Bessent anticipates "big things" in 2026-2027 tied to rare earths and affordability efforts, with companies reporting plans for record foreign investment offsetting tariff pains. Economists caution that tariffs may weaken short-term demand, with long-term growth hinging on factors like infrastructure and demographics over policy alone. As negotiations continue, stakeholders are watching for whether the projected job surge materializes or if current headwinds persist.

Correction: An earlier version misstated the timing of Bessent's comments; they were made in recent remarks, not exclusively in a September 2025 interview.