• U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent forecasts the U.S. could achieve independence in critical minerals refining within 18-24 months through international cooperation and domestic investments.
  • At a recent finance ministers' meeting in Washington, Bessent convened representatives from G7 nations and other key economies, focusing on diversifying supply chains dominated by China.
  • Discussions emphasized "prudent derisking over decoupling," with no joint statement issued but consensus on swift action to address vulnerabilities in rare earths, lithium, cobalt, graphite, and copper supplies.

In a push to bolster national security and manufacturing resilience, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has outlined an ambitious timeline for reducing reliance on China for critical minerals refining. Speaking at a closed-door meeting of finance ministers in Washington on January 12, 2026, Bessent highlighted that international partnerships and accelerated domestic investments could enable the U.S. to achieve refining independence within 18 to 24 months, according to people familiar with the discussions.

The gathering included ministers from G7 countries—the U.S., UK, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Canada, and the EU—along with Australia, India, Mexico, and South Korea, collectively representing about 60% of global demand for critical minerals. The talks centered on vulnerabilities in supply chains for materials essential to defense, semiconductors, batteries, and renewable energy technologies, amid escalating tensions such as China's recent export restrictions targeting Japan. One attendee, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter, noted that Bessent advocated for a strategy of "prudent derisking over decoupling," urging collaborative efforts to build resiliency through price floors and investment incentives.

Efforts to restructure global supply chains have gained urgency as China refines 47% to 87% of key critical minerals, creating risks of price volatility and disruptions that threaten U.S. economic stability. In response, the Trump administration has prioritized initiatives like Section 232 investigations and bilateral deals with countries including Australia, Malaysia, and Cambodia to counter China's dominance. A senior U.S. official, paraphrasing Bessent's remarks, said, "We need to move fast to secure our supply lines without sparking broader trade conflicts." Attempts to reach Chinese officials for comment were unsuccessful.

Market reactions have been muted so far, but industry stakeholders in tech and renewable sectors are closely monitoring developments, anticipating potential stabilization in costs for electric vehicles and batteries long-term. Japanese officials at the meeting warned of global economic crisis risks if supply disruptions persist, echoing concerns raised in prior G7 action plans from June 2025. While no formal agreements were announced, attendees agreed on the need for rapid implementation, with Germany's representative noting that talks are still in early stages with unresolved issues.

Looking ahead, Bessent's prediction hinges on fast-tracked permitting reforms and direct investments in domestic projects, such as the U.S. stakes in Lithium Americas (LAC) and MP Materials (MP). Experts like Japan's Katayama foresee growing momentum among G7 nations for price floors and partnerships, but full independence from China may take years beyond the initial timeline. In related moves, the administration is exploring mineral opportunities in Venezuela, and a BIS Section 232 probe on imports continues to assess security threats. This article was updated to clarify that the meeting did not result in a joint statement, based on additional information from sources.