• Long-term Bitcoin holders own roughly 4 million BTC acquired between $85,000 and $118,000, with over half now underwater as prices hover near $80,000.
  • Glassnode warns that a recovery toward $85,000 could trigger break-even selling, capping upside.
  • ETF demand has improved over the past two sessions, but the market remains fragile with overhead resistance at $85,000–$87,500.

Overhead Supply Looms

Bitcoin’s recent rebound has brought relief to a bruised market, but a cloud of unrealized losses among long-term holders threatens to turn any recovery into a fresh wave of selling. According to Glassnode analysts, long-term holders—those who have kept coins for at least 155 days—own approximately 4 million BTC purchased between $85,000 and $118,000. With the cryptocurrency trading near $80,000, more than half of those coins were reportedly acquired above current prices.

The analytics firm warns that a rally toward $85,000 could prompt investors to sell and break even, creating a supply overhang. Glassnode’s research identifies an overhead resistance zone around $85,000–$87,500, where cost-basis and sell-order concentrations overlap. “The risk is that a recovery simply unlocks latent selling from holders who have been waiting to get out at flat,” said one analyst familiar with the data, who asked not to be named.

ETF Demand Shows Signs of Life

Still, there are tentative signs of improving demand. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $110.3 million on October 26 and $176 million on October 27, according to published snapshots. Those inflows only partly reversed roughly $773 million withdrawn on October 22–23, leaving October approximately $26.1 million net negative through October 27. BlackRock (BLK)’s IBIT supplied the bulk of Tuesday’s inflow, with Fidelity’s FBTC contributing the remainder—evidence that fund-level demand can diverge sharply.

Bitcoin itself has rebounded modestly, trading around $80,800–$81,100 on October 28, up roughly 1%–1.6% over 24 hours. That leaves it below the zone where Glassnode sees substantial potential selling. “The market is caught between buyers returning below $80,000 and a wall of supply above $85,000,” the analyst added. “Without a decisive break, range trading is the path of least resistance.”

A Fragile Balance

Glassnode’s recent reports describe easing selling and diminished loss-taking, but also insufficient fresh buying to establish a durable breakout. The firm’s October 26 assessment noted a failed move toward $85,000, retreating spot and ETF buyers, positive funding paid by leveraged longs, and increased options hedging. Smaller realized losses during successive price declines suggest fewer distressed holders remain willing to sell, but reduced selling does not itself create new demand.

The broader macro backdrop remains relevant. Hotter September inflation and renewed ETF selling earlier in the month placed Bitcoin’s recovery within the debate over monetary conditions and risk appetite. Meanwhile, institutional demand remains concentrated: IBIT attracted approximately $1 billion across October even as the ETF category was slightly negative. That divergence underscores that access through ETFs does not guarantee steady buying.

A connected concern is the vulnerability of smaller crypto assets to the same positioning cycle. Glassnode’s October 7 report warned that stretched altcoin leverage could amplify market-wide consequences if Bitcoin loses nearby support. For now, the immediate question is whether new capital can absorb coins held by investors seeking an exit—or whether the $85,000 level becomes a ceiling rather than a stepping stone.

Correction: October 28, 2026 — An earlier version of this article misstated the net flow figure for October. It has been corrected to approximately $26.1 million net negative through October 27.