• Approximately 10 million bitcoin, or 46-50% of circulating supply, is currently trading at a loss, according to data from Cex.io.
  • Despite stabilizing above $60,000, unrealized losses remain at levels seen during the 2018 and 2022 bear markets, suggesting a potential bottom may not yet be in.
  • Bitcoin recently traded at $65,724, down 1.1%, as ETF outflows slow but remain a headwind.

The Weight of Unrealized Losses

Nearly half of all bitcoin is currently held at a loss, a figure that has persisted even as the cryptocurrency hovers around $65,000. The data, tracked by Cex.io, shows that roughly 10 million BTC carries an unrealized loss, with the proportion of underwater supply matching levels from prior cyclical bottoms in 2018 and 2022. “Historical patterns suggest that such a high concentration of loss positions often precedes capitulation or a prolonged period of consolidation before a true bottom forms,” a market analyst said.

Bitcoin’s price has shown resilience in the mid-$60,000 range after peaking near $70,000, but the overhead supply of underwater holders could cap upside. “If these holders decide to sell at breakeven, it creates resistance,” the analyst added. “We’re watching on-chain metrics like spent output profit ratio and realized price for signs of seller exhaustion.”

ETF Outflows Ease but Institutional Caution Remains

Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have seen a slowdown in outflows after weeks of redemptions, offering a tentative sign of stabilization. However, institutional sentiment remains fragile. According to data from Bloomberg, cumulative outflows from spot bitcoin ETFs have reached over $1.5 billion this month, reflecting risk-off positioning amid broader macroeconomic uncertainty. “The outflows have moderated, but we’re not seeing strong inflows yet,” said a fund manager who requested anonymity. “Institutions are waiting for clearer signals on regulation and inflation before committing new capital.”

The slowdown in ETF outflows has coincided with bitcoin’s price finding support near $60,000, a level that has held in recent trading sessions. Analysts caution, however, that without a catalyst—such as a dovish Fed pivot or positive regulatory news—the upward potential remains limited.

Bear Market Playbook?

History suggests that a bottom often forms when unrealized losses are at their most painful, but timing is uncertain. In 2018 and 2022, the percentage of supply in loss peaked around 50% before a prolonged accumulation phase began. Current metrics mirror those periods, though the crypto landscape has evolved with ETFs and institutional participation.

“The presence of ETFs could change the dynamic,” said a strategist at a digital asset firm. “Institutional holders may be less prone to panic selling, so the bottom could be more of a slow grind rather than a sharp capitulation.”

As of press time, bitcoin was trading at $65,724, with on-chain data signaling that sellers are not yet exhausted. The next few weeks will be critical to see if the $60,000 floor holds or gives way to a deeper correction.