• Prediction market Kalshi now points to a potential Bitcoin low near $46K this year, well below the $55K-$57K support zone flagged by Bitget's Lacie Zhang.
  • Persistent ETF outflows and macro stress are keeping pressure on prices, with crypto pricing in risk ahead of equities.
  • While volatility may continue, analysts suggest crypto could bottom before traditional markets.

Kalshi's Downside Signal

Traders on Kalshi, the prediction-market platform, are now pricing in a non-trivial probability that Bitcoin could fall to around $46,000 this year, according to data from the exchange. That level is significantly lower than the $55,000 to $57,000 support range that some technical analysts, including Bitget's Lacie Zhang, have identified as a key area to watch. Zhang argues that crypto markets are already reflecting macro stress that equities have yet to fully price in, with persistent outflows from spot ETFs keeping downward pressure on prices.

"We're seeing a pattern where crypto leads the risk-off move," Zhang said in a note. "Without a catalyst to reverse sentiment, a break below $55K could accelerate losses."

Macro Headwinds Intensify

The bearish signals come as global macro conditions worsen: Federal Reserve policy uncertainty, sticky inflation, and geopolitical tensions are sapping risk appetite across asset classes. Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq remains elevated, and recent weeks have seen billions of dollars in outflows from U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, according to data from Bloomberg. Kalshi's contracts, which allow traders to bet on specific price thresholds, show increased demand for hedges against a drop below $50,000, with some scenarios touching the mid-$40,000s.

Efforts to stabilize the market have so far faltered. While occasional buying spurts have emerged, each rally has been met with selling pressure. One trader, speaking on condition of anonymity, said: "The liquidity just isn't there to support a sustained recovery right now. People are waiting for a bigger washout."

A Potential Bottom Ahead

Despite the near-term gloom, some analysts see a silver lining. Zhang noted that if Bitcoin does test the $46K to $50K zone, it could form a bottom before equities fully correct. "Historically, crypto tends to lead on the way down and on the way up," she said. "A decisive low here could set the stage for a strong rebound later in the year." Kalshi's data reflects that possibility as well, with contracts pricing a recovery above $70,000 by year-end still plausible.

For now, the market remains in wait-and-see mode. Traders are closely watching Friday's jobs report and next week's Fed meeting for clues on the macro path. Without a deal—whether on tariffs, rates, or regulation—the pressure on Bitcoin is likely to persist.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the Kalshi contract expiration. It is January 27, 2026.