• Deutsche Bank cuts its gold price forecast, now sees Q4 average at $4,800/oz, with a risk of $3,800/oz if the Fed delivers multiple rate hikes.
  • The bank cites a hawkish Federal Reserve, resilient U.S. economic data, and weak investment demand as key headwinds.
  • ETF outflows, soft futures positioning, and weaker demand from China and India are weighing on prices, while central bank buying remains the main support.

Deutsche Bank has lowered its gold price outlook, warning that a string of Federal Reserve rate hikes could push bullion toward $3,800 an ounce. The revised forecast, released this week, reflects a more cautious stance on the precious metal amid a robust U.S. economy and hawkish monetary policy.

The bank now sees gold averaging $4,800 an ounce in the fourth quarter, down from its previous estimate. In a bear-case scenario, prices could tumble to $3,800 if the Fed tightens aggressively, Deutsche Bank said. The revision comes as gold has struggled to gain traction, trading near $4,900 an ounce on Thursday, down from its recent highs.

“The macro backdrop has turned decisively against gold,” said a Deutsche Bank analyst in the note. “A hawkish Fed, resilient U.S. data, and weak investment demand are all weighing on prices. We see limited upside unless central bank buying accelerates significantly.”

Investment demand has been particularly weak, with gold-backed exchange-traded funds seeing persistent outflows. Futures positioning on Comex has also turned bearish, reflecting a lack of speculative interest. Meanwhile, consumer demand from top buyers China and India has softened, though central banks continue to add to their reserves, providing a floor under prices.

The bank’s outlook underscores the delicate balance gold faces: While official sector buying remains robust, it may not be enough to offset the drag from tighter monetary policy and weaker investor appetite. Without a shift in Fed rhetoric or a surprise escalation in geopolitical tensions, gold could remain under pressure, according to Deutsche Bank.

A representative for Deutsche Bank declined to comment beyond the research note.