• Deutsche Bank raises 2026 gold forecast to $4,450/oz average, citing persistent central bank buying and supply deficits
  • Investment demand from ETFs and institutions continues to absorb supply, creating physical scarcity
  • Gold futures trade at $4,170/oz as structural market shifts outweigh traditional price sensitivity

Deutsche Bank has significantly upgraded its gold price outlook for 2026, now projecting the metal will average $4,450 per ounce, a substantial increase from its previous $4,000 forecast. The bank's analysts see prices trading in a range between $3,950 and $4,950 next year as structural demand drivers continue to reshape the market.

Current market activity reflects this bullish sentiment, with gold futures climbing 0.7% to $4,170 per ounce following the forecast revision. The move comes amid what analysts describe as a fundamental repricing of gold's role in global portfolios.

'What we're witnessing is a structural shift where investment demand is absorbing supply that would traditionally flow to more price-sensitive sectors like jewelry,' said one Deutsche Bank analyst familiar with the research. The bank's team noted that consecutive years of supply-demand imbalances have created persistent physical scarcity, evident in elevated lease rates that signal tightness in the physical market.

Central bank activity remains a cornerstone of the bullish thesis. Since 2022, central banks have accounted for approximately 24% of global gold demand, with China's institution adding to its reserves for five consecutive months in 2025 alone. This consistent official sector buying has provided a stable floor under prices even during periods of dollar strength or rising real interest rates.

Global demand continues to outpace new mine production and recycled supply, creating a market deficit that shows few signs of abating. The supply-demand imbalance has become so pronounced that even traditional price-sensitive buyers in the jewelry sector are being crowded out by institutional and official demand.

Deutsche Bank's Michael Hsueh noted that the same supply constraints benefiting gold are also creating positive spillover effects across precious metals. 'Consecutive years of undersupply will benefit silver, platinum, and palladium as well,' he observed, pointing to silver's 21% gain in 2025 as evidence of the broader precious metals rally.

Other major banks have also been revising their gold forecasts upward, though Deutsche Bank's $4,450 average for 2026 sits at the more optimistic end of Wall Street projections. The consensus view appears to be shifting toward acceptance that gold's rally represents more than just temporary safe-haven flows.

Market participants will be watching upcoming central bank reserve data closely for signs that the buying momentum is sustaining. Any material slowdown in official sector accumulation could test the durability of current price levels, though for now, the structural story appears intact.

Deutsche Bank maintained its overweight recommendation on gold and precious metals miners, suggesting the current cycle has further room to run despite record price ranges.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the percentage gain for silver in 2025. The correct figure is 21%.