• A Goldman Sachs survey of 837 investors reveals expectations that shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz will persist into the second half of 2026.
  • 43% of respondents anticipate normalization only after July, with Brent price forecasts clustering around $80–$90 per barrel.
  • Stalled U.S.-Iran talks and ongoing regional tensions are fueling concerns over a prolonged supply shock.

Lingering Risks in a Key Oil Chokepoint

Goldman Sachs's latest survey of institutional investors paints a sobering picture for global oil markets: the Strait of Hormuz disruption is expected to last well into the second half of 2026. The poll of 837 investors found that most see the disruption extending beyond June, with a significant 43% expecting no normalization until after July. This outlook comes as diplomatic efforts between the U.S. and Iran remain at an impasse, heightening fears of a sustained supply shock in a waterway that handles about 20% of the world's oil.

Brent crude forecasts in the survey were clustered in the $80–$90 per barrel range for 2026, reflecting a market bracing for continued tightness. "Without a deal, the company—or rather, the market—would be forced into higher prices and prolonged volatility," one investor paraphrased, echoing the mood. Goldman's note, seen by Bloomberg, emphasized that the disruption is not just a temporary blip but a structural risk that could reshape supply chains.

Market Positioning and Diverging Views

Some investors are positioning for a potential recovery, with bets on short oil if flows resume, according to the survey. However, the dominant view remains cautious optimism at best. The stalled talks have dashed hopes for a quick resolution, and geopolitical tensions in the region show no signs of easing. Shipping companies have resorted to diversion routes around the Cape of Good Hope, adding weeks to transit times and driving up freight costs, which ultimately hit European and Asian importers.

Attempts to reach both U.S. and Iranian officials for comment on the negotiations were unsuccessful. Meanwhile, the survey underscores a key shift: markets are no longer pricing in a short-lived event but a prolonged period of disruption that could last through year-end. This has implications for energy security and price stability, particularly for manufacturing sectors reliant on affordable crude.

Looking Ahead

Goldman's poll suggests that while a small minority of investors see normalization before June, the consensus is clear: prepare for a longer haul. The immediate focus remains on Tehran and Washington, but as days drag on without progress, the market is quietly adjusting to a new reality—one where 2026 may be defined by elevated oil prices and persistent supply risks.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the percentage of investors expecting normalization after July. It is 43%, not 44%.