• GLJ Research reiterates Sell rating on Tesla with a $24.86 price target, arguing any delivery improvement stems from inventory clearance and easier comparisons.
  • Record inventory levels and margin pressures remain key risks, with the analyst dismissing a durable growth recovery.
  • The bearish stance contrasts with more optimistic views on Tesla's long-term catalysts like FSD and robotaxis.

Inventory-Driven Rebound, Not Renewed Growth

GLJ Research analyst Gordon Johnson maintained a Sell rating on Tesla with a $24.86 price target, signaling that the recent uptick in deliveries is not a sign of organic demand recovery. In a note on Thursday, Johnson argued that the improvement reflects inventory clearing, seasonal demand, and easier year-over-year comparisons—not a sustainable shift in consumer appetite.

Tesla shares have been volatile amid mixed sentiment, but Johnson's persistent bearish view caps upside expectations. Record inventory levels and margin erosion remain core concerns, according to the analyst, who sees no near-term catalyst for a fundamental turnaround.

Margin and Demand Headwinds Persist

GLJ's note highlights that Tesla's margins face ongoing pressure from price cuts and competitive pricing in key markets, particularly China and Europe. The analyst also pointed to declining relative delivery volumes compared to peak years, reinforcing a cautious outlook.

“Without a real demand driver, any strength is temporary,” Johnson said. Attempts to reach Tesla for comment were unsuccessful.

The bearish call comes amid a broader EV demand slowdown and subsidy uncertainties, which could further weigh on Tesla's near-term profitability.

Contrasting Views on Long-Term Catalysts

While GLJ remains skeptical, other analysts have highlighted potential upside from energy storage growth or robotaxi milestones. The bulls argue that Tesla's long-term value lies in its Full Self-Driving and energy solutions, but Johnson counters that these have yet to translate into tangible earnings.

For now, the stock trades with a cautious tone as investors weigh inventory data and delivery reports. GLJ's updated price target is the lowest among major analysts, representing a roughly 85% downside from current levels.

Correction: A previous version of this article misstated the price target percentage. It has been updated.