• Goldman Sachs (GS) estimates Persian Gulf oil exports doubled in September to 23.3 million barrels per day, matching the 2025 average.
  • Crude shipments have recovered to 108% of their 2025 average, but refined products like diesel and jet fuel remain at just 50% amid refinery outages and shipping risks.
  • Goldman sees the global oil market roughly balanced and maintains its $85 Brent forecast for year-end, warning that further infrastructure damage could push prices higher.

Gulf Crude Exports Stage Sharp Rebound

Persian Gulf oil exports have rebounded sharply in September, with Goldman Sachs estimating total flows—including “dark” shipments with disabled tracking transponders—at 23.3 million barrels per day in the latest week, roughly matching the 2025 average. The estimate, which includes around 5.2 million bpd of dark exports, suggests physical crude logistics have adapted more quickly than expected, though the opacity of these flows complicates market transparency.

Crude shipments reached about 19 million bpd, or 108% of their 2025 average, accounting for nearly 90% of the month’s export recovery. Higher movements through the Strait of Hormuz and ship-to-ship transfers drove the increase. The recovery eases immediate fears of an outright physical crude shortage, particularly for Asian buyers reliant on Gulf supplies.

Refined Products Remain the Critical Bottleneck

Yet the recovery is uneven. Refined-product and LPG exports have risen, but diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel exports remain only around 50% of their 2025 average. Refinery outages, constrained shipping, and elevated security risks continue to weigh on middle distillates. According to the International Energy Agency, global refinery throughput was 4.2 million bpd lower than a year earlier in August, tightening fuel markets more than crude.

The IEA reported that diesel/gasoil prices in the United States surpassed $200 per barrel in early September, 94% above pre-war levels, attributing the squeeze to Gulf transport constraints, reduced Gulf product exports, and concurrent disruption to Russia’s refining and export system. This helps explain how Goldman can describe the aggregate oil market as approximately balanced while fuel users still face acute stress.

Market Balance and Price Outlook

Goldman judges the overall oil market to be roughly balanced in September and expects Brent to moderate to $85 per barrel by year-end and $80 in 2027. The bank warns, however, that further damage to energy infrastructure could drive prices significantly higher. Its estimate is influential, but should be read alongside physical-market data from bodies such as the IEA.

The IEA’s September assessment underscores the fragility: global oil output fell to 100.1 million bpd in August, with more than 10 million bpd of Gulf production shut in amid security risks. Global observed inventories fell by 95 million barrels in August, bringing cumulative draws since February to 507 million barrels. Such draws helped absorb the supply disruption but leave less buffer against another shock.

Geopolitical and Security Risks Persist

The core issue remains the security and operability of the Strait of Hormuz and linked regional energy infrastructure. The IEA says a continuing U.S.–Iran diplomatic impasse, renewed attacks in the Gulf, and disruption around the Red Sea’s Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint are delaying the normalization of flows. It expects a fuller Gulf supply recovery only in 2027.

U.S. military escorts have supported some crude movements through Hormuz, according to the IEA, illustrating how oil-market stability is being shaped directly by security policy and naval protection. Sanctions and U.S.–Iran diplomacy remain central to the outlook. Iran’s lower exports have been partly offset by higher exports from other Gulf producers, including a more-than-doubling of estimated Saudi exports in September.

Implications for Consumers and Industry

Higher diesel costs filter into road freight, agricultural inputs, construction, public transport, heating, and delivered-goods prices. Higher jet-fuel costs pressure airline margins and can translate into costlier passenger and cargo transport. Gulf crude exporters gain from restored access and stronger prices, while refineries outside the affected region can enjoy elevated margins. Yet higher tanker costs, insurance premiums, and operational risk can erode those gains.

Public debate is likely to center on whether the recent recovery represents genuine normalization or a fragile workaround dependent on military protection, rerouting, ship-to-ship transfers, and opaque flows. The material difference between reported conventional exports and the dark-flow-inclusive estimate is likely to draw particular scrutiny from policymakers, traders, insurers, and sanctions-enforcement authorities.

The main takeaway is that the headline is positive for crude availability but not a declaration that the energy disruption is over. The most important indicators to watch are sustained passage through Hormuz, refinery utilization and product-export volumes, attacks on tankers or infrastructure, inventory data, and the progress—or breakdown—of U.S.–Iran diplomacy.