• Goldman Sachs (GS) CEO David Solomon says the U.S. consumer remains resilient, despite inflation and trade-policy uncertainty.
  • Goldman's economists expect consumer spending to cool in the second half of 2026 as a tax-refund boost fades.
  • The bank's record Q2 results were driven by strong trading and investment banking, but a cautious outlook for consumer spending tempers optimism.

A Resilient Consumer, For Now

In a CNBC interview following Goldman Sachs' blockbuster second-quarter earnings, CEO David Solomon struck a cautiously optimistic tone on the U.S. economy. "The consumer is still pretty resilient," he said, pointing to robust household spending that has defied recession forecasts. The comments come as Goldman reported record net revenues of $20.34 billion, up 39% year over year, with net income of $6.63 billion and diluted EPS of $20.98.

But beneath the upbeat headline, there's a nuance: Goldman's own chief U.S. economist, Jan Hatzius, expects that resilience to cool in the second half of 2026. After an unusually strong spring, the firm projects real consumer-spending growth of just 1%–1.5% in H2, attributing part of the recent strength to larger-than-anticipated tax refunds rather than a durable income trend.

This isn't a declaration that consumers are immune to pressure—rather, it's a statement that spending and employment have held up better than many feared. So far.

What's Driving the Numbers?

Goldman's Q2 surge was fueled by its Global Banking & Markets division, with active equities trading, a revival in IPOs, and a pickup in strategic dealmaking. The bank's total assets stood at $2.13 trillion as of June 30. These results underscore a broader trend: large investment banks are thriving even as the consumer outlook becomes more guarded.

The economic context supports Solomon's view, at least for now. Unemployment dipped to 4.1% in July, down from 4.2% in June, while headline CPI inflation eased to 3.4% year over year. The Fed's policy rate, at 3.75%, remains restrictive, but consumers have continued to spend—partly on the back of government refunds and accumulated savings.

A Tale of Two Forecasts

The apparent contradiction between Solomon's optimism and Hatzius's caution is really a timing difference, explains the CEO. Solomon describes the resilience visible in real-time customer data; the economists warn that the drivers of recent spending may be temporary. This split is typical of a post-inflation cycle where consumption repeatedly exceeds recessionary expectations, but the benefits are unevenly distributed.

Tariffs are a key risk. Goldman estimates that consumers bore about 55% of tariff charges in a prior episode, hitting categories like toys, appliances, furniture, and food. For lower-income households, these costs bite harder, especially when paired with elevated credit costs and rent.

Implications for Markets and Policy

For investors, a durable consumer underpins earnings across retail, travel, and payments. But it also complicates the Fed's fight against inflation, potentially keeping rates higher for longer. The bank's own transaction pipeline suggests continued activity, yet volatility, regulation, and geopolitical shocks could disrupt that outlook.

Solomon's comments are moderately constructive for near-term growth, but the second half of 2026 will test how much of the consumer's strength is sustainable. As the tax-refund boost fades and real cash-flow growth stalls, the resilience he cites may face its toughest challenge yet.