• Goldman Sachs (GS) estimates central banks purchased 79 tonnes of gold in August, roughly 4.6 times the pre-2022 monthly average of 17 tonnes.
  • The surge underscores a multiyear shift toward reserve diversification, driven by geopolitical risk and sanctions exposure.
  • Despite strong official-sector demand, gold prices have faced headwinds from speculative selling and rate expectations.

A Structural Shift in Reserve Management

Central banks bought an estimated 79 tonnes of gold in August, according to Goldman Sachs research, a pace that dwarfs the pre-2022 monthly average of 17 tonnes. The figure, if accurate, represents a roughly 365% increase over the historical norm and reinforces what the investment bank describes as a multiyear trend of reserve diversification away from foreign-currency assets.

The buying spree gained momentum after the freezing of Russian central-bank assets in 2022, which highlighted the political risks of holding reserves in currencies that could be sanctioned. Gold, viewed as less exposed to such measures, has become a favored hedge. A World Gold Council survey this year found that 89% of reserve managers expected global central-bank gold reserves to increase over the next 12 months, with a record 45% anticipating their own institution’s holdings would rise.

Verification Caveats and Conflicting Data

The 79-tonne August estimate could not be independently verified, and different data sources paint a divergent picture. Preliminary World Gold Council figures put September purchases at approximately 63 tonnes—the highest monthly total since November 2024—while Morningstar (MORN) reported August purchases of just 39 tonnes. The discrepancy may stem from methodology: Goldman uses a “nowcast” of central-bank activity, whereas reported reserve statistics track disclosed transactions. Without the original note, the exact reconciliation remains unclear.

Goldman’s research identifies interest-rate expectations as a major counterweight to official-sector demand. Gold pays no interest, so higher yields can make bonds more attractive. Indeed, despite strong central-bank buying, gold prices have softened in recent weeks, with speculative funds selling metals, led by gold, in the week to October 13, according to Saxo Bank.

Beyond the Headline: A Multiyear Trend

The August estimate aligns with a broader acceleration in official-sector gold accumulation. The World Gold Council reports that central banks have added approximately 1,000 tonnes annually on average over the past four years, double the pace of the previous decade. Goldman expects average monthly purchases of 50 tonnes in 2026, well above the pre-2022 norm.

The trend is not uniform. Emerging-market central banks appear more motivated by geopolitical hedging than their advanced-economy counterparts: 85% of respondents from emerging markets considered gold’s geopolitical role relevant, versus 56% in advanced economies. China’s central bank was identified as the largest identifiable buyer in June.

Market Implications and Outlook

While central-bank demand provides a structural tailwind, it does not guarantee rising prices. Gold ETFs attracted $17 billion in August, according to Morningstar, but price weakness has persisted amid shifting rate expectations. Goldman warns that increased use of gold options can amplify both rallies and declines as dealers adjust hedges.

Analysts remain divided on the near-term path. Goldman’s end-2027 forecast stands at $5,400 per ounce, while JPMorgan (JPM) projects approximately $6,300. Both are conditional projections, not assured outcomes. For now, the official sector’s appetite for gold shows little sign of abating—a signal that reserve managers are prioritizing crisis protection over yield.

Clarification: An earlier version of this article misstated the year of Goldman’s August estimate. The 79-tonne figure refers to August 2026.