• Goldman Sachs (GS) raises copper price targets, citing tighter markets outside the U.S.
  • The bank now sees a 950,000-ton deficit in 2026, driven by weaker mine output and strong Chinese demand.
  • Copper prices were little changed on Monday as cautious buying offset the bullish outlook.

A Bullish Call on Copper

Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its copper price forecasts, projecting that the metal will reach $14,700 per metric ton by the end of 2026 and average $15,400 in 2027. That compares with previous estimates of $13,735 and $13,800, respectively—an increase of 7% and 11.6%.

The upgrade, released on Monday, underscores the bank’s view that the copper market outside the United States is tightening. Goldman forecasts supply deficits outside the U.S. of 950,000 metric tons in 2026 and 220,000 metric tons in 2027, driven by weaker mine output and robust demand from China.

“The market is increasingly focused on the availability of metal outside the U.S., where tariffs have distorted flows,” analysts at the bank wrote, according to people familiar with the report. They noted that while global inventories appear ample, much of that metal is stranded in American warehouses.

Muted Market Reaction

Despite the bullish forecast, the immediate market response was subdued. On Monday, London Metal Exchange three-month copper traded at $14,339.50 per ton by 03:30 GMT, roughly 2.5% below Goldman’s year-end target. The metal was broadly unchanged as cautious Chinese buying at elevated prices offset the optimistic outlook.

The Yangshan import premium, a gauge of Chinese demand, stood at $137 per ton, but domestic spot premiums declined, suggesting that buyers remain hesitant to chase prices higher. Meanwhile, Comex stocks in the U.S. reached about 718,200 metric tons on October 19, reflecting purchases ahead of potential refined-copper tariffs.

“The market is caught between a bullish supply narrative and the reality of hesitant demand at current price levels,” said one trader, who asked not to be identified. “Until we see a clearer picture on tariffs, prices may struggle to break higher.”

Supply Side Woes

The bullish case is underpinned by supply disruptions. BHP (BHP) reported a 19% decline in quarterly copper production to 400,700 metric tons, following disruptions in Chile and Australia, though the miner maintained its annual guidance. The news highlights the vulnerability of global mine supply.

Goldman’s forecast also hinges on the expectation that U.S. tariffs will continue to attract metal into the country, reducing availability elsewhere. The U.S. already applies Section 232 tariffs on certain copper products, and a proposed tariff on refined copper—initially set at 15% from January 2027 and 30% from January 2028—remains uncertain. That uncertainty has encouraged stockpiling.

European producer Aurubis (NDA.DE) recently cited the relocation of copper to the U.S. as a reason for depleted warehouses, offering a record $347-per-ton premium for 2027 supply, according to industry reports.

Demand Dynamics

On the demand side, China remains a key variable. While the country’s construction sector has been weak, demand from electricity grids, electric vehicles, and data centers continues to support the longer-term outlook. However, high prices could encourage substitution with aluminum, particularly in the power sector.

Goldman’s forecast is not universally shared. Other institutions, such as BMI and Macquarie (MQG.AX), project lower prices for 2027, expecting a recovery in mine supply and a global surplus. BMO Capital Markets (BMO) sits between the two, forecasting an average of $14,675 per ton, acknowledging the tightness outside the U.S. but stopping short of Goldman’s bullishness.

“The divergence in forecasts reflects genuine uncertainty about how tariffs and Chinese demand will evolve,” said a analyst at a rival bank. “Goldman is taking a strong view on supply, but the market is not yet convinced.”

Goldman Sachs declined to comment on the report. As of Monday, the bank’s stock was little changed, reflecting broader market trends.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the percentage increase in Goldman’s 2026 price target. It is 7%, not 6.7%.