• Goldman Sachs (GS) forecasts gold at about $4,900 per ounce by end-2026, implying nearly 20% additional upside from late-2025 levels.
  • The bank highlights significant upside potential if market conditions deteriorate, driven by central-bank demand and investor diversification.
  • Recent price action shows gold up more than 40% in 2025, on track for a third straight year of double-digit gains.

Goldman Sachs' commodities research team, led by Daan Struyven, told Bloomberg they see "nearly 20% of additional price upside by the end of 2026," with a base-case target of $4,900 per ounce. Struyven added that in scenarios with weaker markets, rising fiscal concerns, or doubts about Federal Reserve independence, gold could perform even better than this bullish base case.

A recent Goldman Sachs Research note separately projected $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by strong central-bank buying and Fed easing, and explicitly stated that the risk is skewed to the upside versus that forecast. Kitco's summary of Goldman's call says the bank expects $4,900 per ounce in 2026 on sustained demand from central banks and ETFs, and suggests prices could "blow past" that level if investors accelerate diversification into gold.

Goldman notes central banks—especially in emerging markets—have increased gold purchases roughly fivefold since 2022, following the freezing of Russia's FX reserves after its invasion of Ukraine. The bank views this as a structural shift in reserve management, with official-sector accumulation expected to continue for at least three more years. Emerging-market central banks are still underweight gold compared with developed markets, suggesting room for continued allocation increases.

Struyven ties upside scenarios to weaker risk markets, fiscal trajectory worries, and questions about Fed independence, all of which historically bolster gold as a safe-haven and hedge. Efforts to reach Goldman Sachs for further comment were not immediately successful, but sources familiar with the matter indicate the forecast is based on ongoing analysis of market data and client activity.

Goldman's outlook comes as gold is up more than 40% in 2025 and on track for a third straight year of double-digit gains, reflecting robust demand and macro uncertainty. The sharp rise in central-bank gold buying is linked to geopolitical risk and the 2022 freezing of Russia's foreign-currency reserves by Western governments, which has pushed some countries to "sanctions-proof" reserves via gold.

In the short term, Goldman's written research calls for $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, noting some risk of tactical pullbacks because speculative long positions are elevated and tend to mean-revert. By end-2026, the base case is about $4,900 per ounce, underpinned by ongoing central-bank accumulation, supportive Fed policy, and continued investor diversification. Upside scenarios could see prices blow past $4,900 if private investors significantly increase allocations to gold on top of central-bank and ETF demand.

Goldman sees central-bank accumulation continuing another three years, implying a multi-year structural tailwind. Other institutional outlooks referenced by industry commentators suggest gold could reach or exceed $5,000 per ounce into 2026, contingent on macro conditions like real yields, inflation, and geopolitical risk. Coverage of Wall Street's 2026 outlook notes that gold is increasingly seen as a core portfolio hedge amid uncertainty over growth, inflation, and fiscal policy.

This article was updated to clarify that Goldman Sachs' forecast includes both a mid-2026 and end-2026 target, with the latter emphasizing upside risks.