• Goldman Sachs increases its gold price target for end-2025 to $3,300/oz, up from $3,100.
  • The revision reflects stronger-than-expected ETF inflows and sustained central bank purchases.
  • Analysts see potential for further upside depending on Fed policy and geopolitical developments.

Goldman's Bullish Gold Outlook

Goldman Sachs has lifted its end-2025 gold price forecast to $3,300 per ounce, marking a $200 increase from its previous projection of $3,100. The adjustment comes as ETF inflows continue to surprise to the upside and central banks maintain their aggressive accumulation of bullion reserves.

"We're seeing structural shifts in gold demand that justify this revision," said a Goldman analyst who asked not to be named discussing internal research. "Central banks aren't slowing down, and investor appetite keeps growing."

The precious metal has already surged more than 40% since January 2024, repeatedly setting new records. Much of this rally stems from emerging market central banks diversifying reserves after Western nations froze Russian assets in 2022. Goldman notes these purchases have remained "remarkably consistent" even at elevated price levels.

Market Drivers and Risks

Political uncertainty appears to be compounding gold's appeal. Traders cite the potential for new Trump administration tariffs and escalating geopolitical conflicts as factors supporting prices. Some institutional investors have reportedly increased gold allocations as a hedge against these risks.

Goldman's research team outlined two scenarios that could push prices even higher: a recession-induced Fed cutting cycle might drive gold to $3,410, while intensified safe-haven demand could propel it to $3,680. The bank has accordingly widened its forecast range to $3,250-$3,520.

Other major institutions are also revising targets upward. Bank of America recently increased its projections citing trade policy uncertainties, while JP Morgan analysts suggested $3,000 could be reached by late 2025. When reached for comment, a Goldman spokesperson declined to elaborate beyond the published research note.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the percentage increase in gold prices since January 2024. The correct figure is 40%, not 50%.